In the near future, foreign exchange rates in Ukraine will remain within the corridor of UAH 41.05-41.85 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 47.80-48.70 for the euro.
The relevant forecast was made by the analysts of KYT Group, a multiservice fintech company, in a commentary to Ukrinform.
As emphasized by the experts, this week Ukraine’s foreign exchange market has operated as predicted. The main influencing factors remained the restrained intervention activity of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the expected pressure on the market from the population and representatives of the export-import sector of the economy, as well as expectations of the August macroeconomic data from the United States and the European Union.
According to the analysts, there were no geopolitical or economic ‘turbulences’ capable of shaking Ukraine’s foreign exchange market.
“The reaction of the cash segment of the foreign exchange market is rather restrained. Despite the gradual strengthening of the official hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies, the average buying and selling rates of the U.S. dollar and euro in the cash segment changed with a small amplitude within the general downward trend of recent weeks. The cash segment of the foreign exchange market acted (and with a high probability will act so until significant external or internal factors appear) inertially, without excitement or speculative fluctuations,” the report states.
The current balance of factors influencing the foreign exchange market across all of its segments remains neutral. News from the United States and the EU (namely, regarding business activity, employment and inflation) can potentially affect global sentiment, but are unable to significantly change the current situation and will not become drivers of fundamental influences on the Ukrainian hryvnia.
“Until there are significant external signals (economic or political), Ukraine’s foreign exchange market will focus on a ‘narrow amplitude’ with minor situational fluctuations, with a high probability of a further trend towards strengthening of the hryvnia,” KYT Group’s analysts noted.
They see no reason to revise previous estimates and expect that, in the short term, rates across all segments of the foreign exchange market will remain within the projected corridor:
– in the short term (up to 3 weeks), a base range of UAH 41.05-41.85 for the U.S. dollar is expected, with a possible squeeze of market quotations closer to UAH 41.10-41.70 for the U.S. dollar;
– in the short term (up to 3 weeks), a base range of UAH 47.80-48.70 for the euro is expected.
Situational minor movements in both pairs are possible under the influence of new data from the United States and the EU. The spread (difference) between the buying and selling rates, which more clearly reflects market sentiment and expectations than the values of the rates, is likely to remain at the usual stable levels, indicating a stable situation and being an indicator of stable expectations of market operators.
“Overall, it is worth focusing on moderate dynamics. Fluctuations will be technical rather than fundamental,” KYT Group’s analysts concluded.
A reminder that Liberty Finance, which is part of KYT Group, is one of Ukraine’s largest foreign exchange market operators.
As of August 22, 2025, the official exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia was set as follows: UAH 41.21 for the U.S. dollar (UAH 41.37 as of August 21, 2025); UAH 47.98 for the euro (UAH 48.16 as of August 21, 2025).
Photo: NBU
Source: Analysts predict exchange rate of dollar, euro for last week of summer
