In the second half of August 2025, the general situation on the foreign exchange market will remain largely unchanged. No significant exchange rate fluctuations are expected to take place.
The relevant statement was made by Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank Taras Liesovyi in a commentary to Ukrinform.
As explained by Liesovyi, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar will continue to be formed within the ‘managed flexibility’ range, i.e. the National Bank’s strategy will remain the same. Hence, there will be no global exchange rate fluctuations with regard to the U.S. dollar.
“Instead, current exchange rate changes, as well as the difference between the rates of the non-cash and cash markets, will be extremely minimal (we are talking about ‘kopeck’ changes here, which can be regarded as stable and usual). In addition, the supply of the U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market may increase significantly, as agricultural companies sell surplus currency to purchase fuel and other consumables amid the harvesting campaign,” Liesovyi explained.
According to his forecast, in this context, the regulator will unlikely resort to active interventions on the interbank market during this period. Thus, exchange rate changes will be regulated mainly with its minimal intervention.
As for the euro, its value will continue to be determined by global trading in the dollar/euro pair, as well as the exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia against the U.S. dollar. Here, the banking expert does not expect significant changes: the euro to dollar ratio will remain within 1 to 1.2. Therefore, the exchange rate of the euro in Ukraine will be in the range of UAH 48-49.
“The exchange rate of the euro may be volatile, but there are no reasons for any rapid increases or decreases in this currency. In other words, the situation on the foreign exchange market will remain on a plateau; no significant exchange rate fluctuations are expected,” Liesovyi noted.
In his words, the foreign exchange market currently operates in conditions of a stable dollar and a volatile euro, but the exchange rate of the euro is very unlikely to cross the UAH 50 mark in the coming days. Even though this indicator is no longer something ‘scary’, as the exchange rate of the euro is determined by objective global factors, Liesovyi concluded.
A reminder that, as of August 14, 2025, the official exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia was set as follows: UAH 41.51 for the U.S. dollar (UAH 41.42 as of August 13, 2025); UAH 48.64 for the euro (UAH 48.07 as of August 13, 2025).
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Source: Banking expert predicts no turmoil on FX market until late Aug 2025
