In September 2025, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar will remain stable in the corridor of UAH 41.6-42. Meanwhile, the euro will fluctuate in the range of UAH 48-49.5 due to the impact of global trading.
The relevant statement was made by Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank Taras Liesovyi in a commentary to Ukrinform.
According to Liesovyi, September 2025 will not be static on the foreign exchange market. However, considering the main economic trends of the summer, there will be no global sensations. The main factors that may affect foreign exchange rates are still more economic.
First of all, this is the beginning of the budget process, where the weighted average exchange rate of the U.S. dollar for the coming year is determined. At the same time, as noted by the expert, this indicator should not be perceived as a rigid fixation, but rather as a guideline, because it sets a certain information vector for business and the population.
For example, the 2024 budget included the exchange rate of UAH 45 for the U.S. dollar. But, the actual dynamics was more gradual and, at the end of the summer, the U.S. dollar was even below the initial rate, totaling UAH 42.02 as of January 1, 2025.
Another factor is the National Bank’s strategy on the foreign exchange market. The ‘managed flexibility’ regime remains highly effective in wartime conditions.
“On the one hand, the regulator manages to balance supply and demand through foreign exchange interventions, and on the other hand, exchange rate changes are not abrupt and do not occur unexpectedly. With this regime, all current exchange rate changes are minimal and more or less slow,” Liesovyi explained.
An important factor is also the country’s general economic situation. Here, according to Liesovyi, the key role is played by the slowdown in inflation, from 15.9% in May 2025 to 14.1% in July 2025. In August 2025, inflation might even reduce to 13.5%, according to the preliminary estimates. Additionally, in the fall, businesses traditionally become more active, namely in such sectors as agriculture, construction and defense industry, which also has a positive effect on the foreign exchange market.
The fourth factor is international financial support for 2026. Liesovyi mentioned that, according to the expert estimates, Ukraine would need at least USD 38-40 billion in external financial assistance next year. In this regard, positive news is expected in September-October 2025.
Eventually, the expert called military developments as the fifth factor. This includes the course of hostilities, countermeasures against enemy actions, the consequences of enemy attacks, and potential progress on the path to peace. These are extremely challenging factors that indirectly influence foreign exchange rates and form certain expectations in society.
As for the main exchange rate benchmarks, Liesovyi predicts relative stability for the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, remaining in the corridor of UAH 41.6-42. Meanwhile, the euro will be more vulnerable to external factors, since its exchange rate will be formed mainly under the influence of global fluctuations in the dollar/euro pair, as well as the internal hryvnia/dollar ratio.
“By all indications, we have another month of ‘foreign exchange rate fluctuations’ ahead. Thus, the value of the euro will change more rapidly than the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the exchange rate is unlikely to exceed UAH 49.5 for the euro, and the main fluctuations will occur in the corridor of UAH 48-49.5 for the euro,” the expert concluded.
A reminder that, in the first week of September 2025, foreign exchange rates in Ukraine are unlikely to go beyond the corridor of UAH 41.6-42 for the U.S. dollar, and UAH 48-49 for the euro.
Source: Expert predicts ‘exchange rate fluctuations’ for euro in Sept 2025
