Aleksey Dyumin, a former Kremlin security agent, has emerged as a potential candidate to replace Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whose ousting was demanded by Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin during his mutiny attempt on June 24.
Born in Kursk, in western Russia, Dyumin, 50, is a former agent of the Federal Guard Service (FSO) that provides security for the president and other state officials, and was appointed as governor of Tula region by Russian President Vladimir Putin in February 2016. He previously served as Shoigu’s deputy in the Russian Ministry of Defense, and several analysts—Western and Russian—believe he has his eyes set on returning to the department as its head.
Dyumin served in Putin’s guard when he was president from 2000 to 2008 as well as when Putin headed the government from 2008 to 2012.
As the Wagner Group marched on Moscow during Prigozhin’s short-lived mutiny on June 24, the Russian tycoon declared that his goal was the resignation of the men leading Russia’s war in Ukraine—Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
In the aftermath of the attempted rebellion, analysts said that Dyumin could eventually replace Shoigu as defense minister.
Pro-Kremlin political analyst Sergei Markov said on his Telegram channel that he believed “highly likely that Alexei Dyumin will become Minister of Defense, and General [Sergei] Surovikin will become Chief of the General Staff.”
“But this will not happen immediately, so that there are no thoughts that Shoigu and Gerasimov were removed at the request of the rebel,” Markov wrote.
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Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told the Financial Times that Shoigu and Gerasimov are “now obvious lame ducks” and will both “be removed” by Putin.
Abbas Gallyamov, who served for three years as Putin’s speechwriter, agreed.
“It seems that Dyumin is now the favorite,” Gallyamov wrote on his Telegram channel.
Russia’s Defense Ministry published a video on Monday that appeared to show Shoigu on the job for the first time since Prigozhin seized Russia’s Southern Military Command HQ in Rostov-on-Don and advanced toward Moscow, before pulling back his fighters. It was not clear when or where the video was filmed.
During Prigozhin’s aborted mutiny, reports circulated that Dyumin participated in negotiations with the Wagner Group boss before a deal was reportedly brokered by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to avoid “bloodshed.” The Kremlin said that deal would see Prigozhin leave for Belarus, and a criminal case against him for armed mutiny be dropped. On Monday, media reports said the investigation into the Wagner Group boss remained open. But on Tuesday, state-owned media, citing the Federal Security Service (FSB), reported that Russian authorities had closed the mutiny probe into the Wagner Group.
Read more
- Prigozhin still under investigation despite exile—Russian media
- Putin will do everything to “make Prigozhin disappear,” warns ex-KGB agent
- Prigozhin’s mutiny was first stage of Putin system’s “dismantling”—Official
- Prigozhin says Putin’s reason for invading Ukraine was a lie
The Tula region’s press service told Russian newspaper Vedomosti that Dyumin did not take part in the negotiations between Lukashenko and Prigozhin.
Latvia-based independent news outlet Meduza reported in October 2022, citing sources closes to the Kremlin, that relations between Dyumin and Shoigu did not work out when the pair worked together in the Defense Ministry.
The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based think tank said speculation on Dyumin replacing Shoigu as defense minister could not be confirmed, adding that “any changes to the MoD leadership would notably represent a significant victory for Prigozhin.”
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry via email for comment.
