UK intelligence analyzes purpose of Russia’s launch of Oreshnik missile

The UK Ministry of Defense said this in an intelligence update published on X, Ukrinform reports.

According to the update, on November 21, 2024 Russia targeted a Ukrainian munitions factory in Dnipro with the first-ever operational use of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), codenamed Oreshnik. An IRBM is classified as having a maximum range of between 3,000-5,500km. In this instance, the missile only traveled just over 800km to its target.

Russia announced its withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty in February 2019, which banned the development and production of IRBMs. However, the development of Oreshnik almost certainly occurred before this. The system is highly likely a variant of the Rubezh RS-26 ballistic missile, which was first tested in 2011.

“The use of this experimental system against Ukraine was almost certainly intended as strategic messaging following the use by Ukraine of Western missiles into Russia,” British intelligence analysts said.

In their opinion, Russia highly likely only has a handful of Oreshnik missiles, which are yet to enter serial production.

This missile is highly likely to be far more expensive than other missiles Russia is currently using against Ukraine, the report said.

As Ukrinform reported, on November 21, Russian forces launched an intercontinental ballistic missile at Dnipro.

Kremlin leader Putin stated that the Russian army had used an Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile in the attack, allegedly in retaliation for Ukraine using American and British long-range missiles.

The White House assessed the strike as the launch of a medium-range ballistic missile, while the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate suggested it was likely launched from the Kedr system.