Russia may stage “rescue” of Transdniestria from humanitarian crisis – expert

Mykhailo Honchar, President of the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, stated this in a comment to Ukrinform.

“Russia’s plans in the region are multilayered. Destabilizing the situation and creating chaos is a traditional Russian approach, which has been used against Moldova in various forms over time,” Honchar noted.

The expert suggests that the Kremlin is currently attempting to portray the unrecognized Transdniestrian republic as a victim of two “Nazi regimes,” which have caused a humanitarian catastrophe. However, this narrative has not gained traction so far due to mild weather conditions. Additionally, household consumers in Transdniestria are not heavily reliant on centralized heating and gas, as they predominantly use solid fuels like firewood. The lack of gas primarily affects a few large industrial enterprises, the main consumers of Russia’s free gas.

“Thus, the narrative about the ‘dying poor PMR’ [Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic as Transdniestria is officially known – ed.] is a major exaggeration. But this is precisely the scenario being promoted. It’s likely that the situation will escalate during colder weather, shifting the narrative toward a ‘rescue operation’,” Honchar observed.

The expert believes that the Gazprom may resume gas supplies to the enclave via the second branch of the TurkStream pipeline. From there, gas could be transported in reverse through the Trans-Balkan pipeline, reaching Transdniestria and the right bank of Moldova. Sufficient capacity is available in the TurkStream for such a maneuver.

“This could be staged as a grand show, where opposition figures from Moldova, Gagauzia, as well as Transdniestrian leaders would travel to Moscow with petitions, and Putin would order the Gazprom to supply gas. A propaganda campaign would follow, urging voters to remember who saved them in winter and whom to support in the elections,” Honchar explained.

However, the expert doubts this scheme will succeed, as voters are likely to forget the January events by November’s elections.

As reported earlier, Ukraine ceased the transit of gas from Russia’s state-owned Gazprom through its gas transmission system on January 1, citing national security concerns. Following this, the self-proclaimed Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic experienced the loss of centralized heating and implemented rolling blackouts.

The Gazprom attributed the suspension of gas supplies to unpaid debts. Moldova offered to assist Transdniestria in purchasing natural gas through European procurement platforms, but the self-proclaimed president of the PMR, Vadim Krasnoselsky, rejected the offer and blamed the Moldovan government for the energy crisis.