NBU forecasts gradual decrease in international aid for Ukraine

This is said in the NBU’s January 2025 Inflation Report, Ukrinform reports.

“Significant amounts of external financial assistance from international partners are expected to remain with a gradual decline over the forecast horizon as the economy normalizes. The baseline scenario of the forecast provides for the attraction of international financing in the amount of $38.4 billion, $25 billion and $15 billion in 2025-2027, respectively,” the National Bank noted.

The forecast’s baseline scenario anticipates the continuation of significant external financial support, particularly in 2025. However, the volume and pace of receipts may fluctuate, both positively and negatively, the NBU notes.

The NBU added that in 2025, the majority of assistance is expected to be received under the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) Loans for Ukraine mechanism, part of which can be directly spent on defense needs.

“The risk of not receiving the expected funding in the current year is relatively low, but the uncertainty for the following years remains significant. The receipt of official funding is linked to the adoption of budgets in partner countries for the following years, so its regularity and sufficiency may not be ensured to the fullest extent,” the report says.

As Ukrinform reported, Ukraine received $41.7 billion in international aid in 2024. In 2025, the European Union provides EUR 30.6 billion in budget support for Ukraine: EUR 18.1 billion – funds that are part of the G7 ERA initiative from the revenues from frozen Russian assets; EUR 12.5 billion – financial assistance under the Ukraine Facility.