Russian strikes on the Ukrainian gas production grids that occurred during January-March caused major disruptions in the Ukrainian natural gas market.
When attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the Russians frequently change the priority targets for their strikes. Initially, massive attacks targeted primarily thermal and hydropower generation facilities and high-voltage substations. At the following stages, the focus shifted towards attacks on the substations connecting nuclear power plants and the power grids. Since the beginning of 2025, the Russian military have focused their strikes on gas infrastructure facilities – in particular, gas production sites. Whereas domestic gas production fully supported the needs of the current heating season, the energy sector is expecting serious challenges when time comes to prepare for the heating season 2025/2026. Ukrinform has figured out how critical the aftermath of Russian strikes on the Ukrainian gas production infrastructure is and where to get gas for the next winter season.
ATTACKS ON GAS PRODUCTION INFRASTRUCTURE ARE NO NEW, BUT NEVER BEFORE HAVE THEY BEEN THAT MASSIVE
As a matter of fact, Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, and the energy sector as a whole, have been the targets for Russian attacks since the very inception of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Way back in March 2022, for example, a Russian air barrage damaged the facilities of LLC “Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine” in the Kharkiv region, and in May of the same year, the Russian Federation cut off the flow of gas through the gas metering station “Sokhranivka”.
Particularly painful were Russian attacks on gas storage facilities in the spring of 2024, which occurred simultaneously with attacks on thermal and hydroelectric power plants. At that time, Naftogaz had hopes to solicit interest from international companies who would like to store their gas reserves in underground storage facilities in Ukraine. However, the enemy’s plan had worked, and attacks on storage facilities became one of the factors that reduced traders’ interest in storing gas in Ukraine.
Whereas attacks on gas infrastructure have until recently targeted specific sites, the picture changed dramatically at the beginning of 2025. The Russians began to more persistently attack gas production facilities in eastern Ukraine, focusing on the assets of the Naftogaz Group and private gas production companies. The result was that Ukraine was forced to import almost 512 million cubic meters of gas in February, increasing imports by 1,200 percent from the previous month, according to a report from the consulting company ExPro Consulting.
Overall, Russia has deployed 17 combined missile and drone attacks targeting the Naftogaz Group’s gas infrastructure facilities over the time it launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, according to Roman Chumak, interim Board Chair of Naftogaz Group.
“The strikes have inflicted a severe damage on the industrial facilities that support gas production. The situation is challenging, but controllable. Recovery and repair work is ongoing. The entire Naftogaz Group team, as well as Ukrgazvydobuvannya employees are doing everything they can to make sure the country and consumers are provided with gas in the sufficient amount,” Chumak said in a comment to Ukrinform.
After the Russians chose a new target for their attacks, Naftogaz was forced to start importing gas. “The main goal is to guarantee a smooth end to the current heating season, as well as to accumulate a strategic fuel reserve for the next winter season,” Chumak said.
Artem Petrenko, executive director of the Ukrainian Association of Gas Producers, said in a comment that the Russians had meticulously prepared for the attacks: first, they used a large number of drones to overwhelm our air defenses, then launched missiles of various types to cause maximum damage to the facilities.
“A significant damage has been inflicted on industrial facilities and gas production infrastructure, both government and privately owned, in Eastern Ukraine. In particular, some of the facilities have halted their operations in the aftermath of the attacks. Furthermore, individual gas fields have been damaged beyond repair and will have to be rebuilt from scratch,” Petrenko went on to comment.
Repairing the aftermath of the strikes will take time and significant investments both in recovering the facilities and securing them from potential future attacks.
“Russian strikes on gas production facilities that occurred during February-March have severely disrupted the balance in the Ukrainian gas market. Statistics on the production loss has remained undisclosed. According to Reuters, the losses amounted to 40 percent. However, according to information at my disposal, gas production has declined, but not that greatly,” argues Mykhailo Svyshcho, natural gas market analyst at ExPro Consulting.
He emphasized that, despite the Russian attacks, Ukraine has actually passed this heating season smoothly, both due to gas imports and domestic production.
According to Mr Petrenko, Ukraine’s gas production sector currently needs the support from international partners. “First of all, this is about a speedy provision of the requisite equipment to recover destroyed production capacities and repair the damaged ones. We all understand perfectly well that such equipment is not produced en masse, and it takes not just time for manufacturing, but also for delivery, installation and commissioning. That said, assistance provided to Ukrainian gas producers would definitely become a significant contribution to our energy security,” Mr Petrenko commented.
The expert noted that the companies are currently negotiating on that matter with partners. In addition, a close engagement between the government and private companies is critical, as they often share common infrastructure. Petrenko emphasized that such cooperation will allow for more effective and, possibly, faster repair of the aftermath of the attacks and restoration of the facilities of critical importance.
GAS IMPORTS WILL BE CRUCIAL IN PREPARING FOR NEXT WINTER SEASON
It is obvious that the current heating season is coming to an end without any limitations imposed on gas supply and consumption, and the main challenge now is preparing for the 2025-2026 heating season.
According to the European Union of Gas Transmission System Operators (ENTSO-G), Ukrainian gas storage facilities were 3.98 percent full as of March 12 (plus the so-called buffer gas, which cannot be withdrawn). By way of comparison, the lowest filling levels were recorded at 11.12 percent for the end of the heating season 2024 and 14.98 percent for 2023.
Therefore, given the critically low level of gas storage filling at the end of the current heating season, as well as the need for additional amounts of gas to support part of distributed generation, the extent of destruction inflicted on its domestic gas production capacity, and the unpredictable future situation in the theater of war, Ukraine will have to actively purchase gas from international suppliers.
In January, Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko predicted that Ukraine would have to purchase 1 billion cubic meters of “blue fuel” from international markets to get prepared for the next winter season. That said, however, the forecasts, of course, will have to be revised after a series of new, subsequent attacks on gas production infrastructures.
“If Ukraine manages to bring production to the level as it was in January 2025 by the beginning of April, and there is no new damage done to production, that is, in the most optimistic scenario, we will need to import 2.5-3 billion cubic meters by the beginning of the next fall-winter season,” says Mr Svyshcho.
If production remains at the current level or declines further due to new Russian attacks, imports will have to be increased to 6 billion cubic meters, the expert estimates.
Naftogaz is already looking for partners to buy gas from. Thus, in early March, a long-term agreement on cooperation in the supply of liquefied gas was signed with the Polish company ORLEN. The agreement provides for the supply of about 100 million cubic meters of “blue fuel” to Ukraine.
“It seems entirely possible that the imported volume will be increased. To add to this, gas purchases from European markets are a reliable source of gas supplies to Ukraine, given the availability of a sufficient technical capacity to support these imports,” says Svyshcho. According to him, liquefied gas is an important potential source of imports to Ukraine.
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH MONEY?
In addition to the question of where to buy gas from, the question arises as to where the money will come to buy it.
“Natural gas prices in Europe remain somewhat higher than on the Ukrainian market, but comparing with different periods of previous years, it cannot be said that gas in Europe is significantly more expensive,” Mr Svyshcho argues.
At the same time, the expert highlights the fact that, during preparations for this heating season, European countries had to increase the amount of gas injected into their underground storage facilities to 90 percent of capacity by November 1.
“I think that, given the significant volumes of gas needed for the next winter season, it would be more beneficial for Ukraine to conclude longer-term contracts to secure itself from spot price fluctuations. But financing natural gas purchases remains a critical issue,” Svyshcho went on to comment.
The money to pay for gas purchases is already being sought. It is known that Norway will provide a grant for these purposes as part of a broader package of support for Ukraine’s energy sector. Assistance in financing gas purchases is also provided for in the support package announced by the European Commission at the end of February.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) could become another source of financial support to help Ukraine accumulate the requisite amount of “blue fuel” reserve. Last year, thanks to the funds provided by the EBRD, Naftogaz acquired almost 500 million cubic meters of gas as an insurance reserve. This year, the company’s managers have already negotiated the continuation of cooperation with the EBRD delegation.
Meanwhile, experts and market participants draw attention to the need to revise the current model of companies’ commitment to Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) regarding natural gas. Let us recall that the price of “blue fuel” for household consumers, district heating companies, and gas-electricity producers is set by the Cabinet of Ministers.
At the same time, as Andrian Prokip, director of energy programs at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future NGO, noted during a roundtable discussion at Ukrinform, the price of gas for subsidized categories of consumers has not been revised since the beginning of full-scale invasion. According to him, this situation complicates contracting for gas supplies in preparation for the next cold season. “Europe will also need gas. If we look at stock quotes, we will see that the price (which usually decreases in the summer) contracted for the next summer is almost the same at it is now at the start of spring,” added Andriy Myzovets, president of the Ukrainian Association of Gas Traders.
However, the Cabinet of Ministers says that a revision of prices, in particular for natural gas, is not expected in the near future. After all, back in August 2022, a law came into force that imposes a moratorium on increasing gas tariffs for household consumers, condominiums, and household heat producers. The moratorium is supposed to remain in effect for the duration of martial law in Ukraine and during six months after martial law is lifted.
That said, however, experts are convinced that the existing CSR model will have to be reviewed, sooner or later.
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By way of remainder, as the day was approaching for Ukraine to terminate the flow of Russian gas through its territory, voices were heard saying that this would cause massive attacks on the Ukrainian gas transportation grids. But Russia, however, chose to target Ukraine’s gas production infrastructure instead.
It is still too early to predict the “schedules of gas outages”. Both because of the uncertainty of the future and because preparations for the next heating season have not, in fact, kicked off yet. But let this not be complacency, because the situation is really difficult, even though our energy sector workers have repeatedly proven that they are able to prevent the worst forecasts from playing out. Gas companies are already looking for opportunities both to resume domestic production and to import “blue fuel”. And we have no doubt that they will do everything they can to ensure uninterrupted gas supply to households and businesses.
Viktoriya Nakonechna, Kyiv
Headline photo courtesy of the State Service for Emergencies of Ukraine
Source: Russian attacks on Ukraine’s gas production infrastructure: the aftermath and forecasts
