German expert: Merz government will pursue more active policy towards Ukraine

Andreas Umland, a German expert and analyst at the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies, expressed this hope in a comment to Ukrinform.

“At the moment, it looks like a new government policy towards Ukraine will be implemented,” Umland said.

He drew attention to the fact that at least the rhetoric of the new Chancellor Friedrich Merz “hints at this” and that the coalition agreement also applies to Ukraine. This document, which, in the expert’s opinion, is not just a symbolic document, but is of great importance in Germany – it is actually a binding document, clearly states that Ukraine should be supported to be in a better negotiating position.

“I believe that as long as this coalition remains in power, the government remains in power, at least based on the rhetoric we hear now, there will actually be an intensification of German assistance to Ukraine. I actually expect a significant revitalization of German policy towards Ukraine, both bilaterally and multilaterally, through the European Union, the Ramstein format and the Coalition of the Willing, and NATO,” the expert said.

He added that the Social Democratic Party, which entered the government this time as a junior partner, will have politicians in the new government (such as Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius) who are “relatively close to the CDU in terms of foreign policy.”

“I would say that the best wing of the SPD is in the government,” Umland said, adding that some other politicians from the ‘Gerhard Schroeder faction’ [pro-Russian ex-chancellor] will apparently not have as much influence as before.

Umland acknowledged that there is no information yet on any specific aid figures or “concrete new approaches.” In particular, there are no specifics on the issue that worries many people – the Taurus missiles. Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz used his so-called policy powers to prevent Ukraine from receiving these missiles. Merz, on the other hand, could use his powers to decide to deliver the Taurus.

“In my opinion, Merz will probably try to make sure that there is a larger Western aid package, a European aid package, that the Taurus missiles are part of this larger European package, and that it also includes similar British or French weapons, so that they are delivered in a larger context, so to speak, and not as a separate delivery from Germany to Ukraine,” the analyst suggested.

But, he noted, the new chancellor will have to convince his own population, which overwhelmingly does not support the transfer of such weapons.

“I think we’ll have to wait and see if Merz can bring this Taurus issue to the German public,” the expert said. Such an attitude of the Germans is largely the result of Olaf Scholz’s rhetoric, he reminded.

Speaking about the strengthening of Germany’s role in the international arena, which many expect, Umland expressed confidence that Berlin will strive for this, but rather not as a national country, but through the European Union, through the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, who, like Merz, is a member of the Christian Democratic Union.

“It will be easier for Germans to accept this if there are European actions and European policies, not German national policies,” the German expert explained.

Regarding relations with the United States, Merz, according to Umland, is “probably the most pro-American, most pro-Atlantic chancellor in Germany’s postwar history,” who, in this context, can be compared to Konrad Adenauer. However, while Friedrich Merz knows America well, is pro-Atlantic and pro-American, the American government itself is currently so anti-Western, sometimes confused and sometimes incompetent that Berlin’s position may not be of much help, the expert believes.

But, he added, it is good for German-American relations that the chancellor is a CDU politician, as this conservative party is traditionally closer to the Republicans than the Social Democrats [to which Scholz belongs]. Under any circumstances, thanks to Merz, Germany’s importance for America will increase, the agency’s source believes.

As reported, Friedrich Merz was elected Chancellor of Germany in the second round of voting on May 6. He and his government will begin work on the same day.

Photo: Die Zeit