EBRD lowers Ukraine’s economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.5% to 3.3%

The EBRD said this in a press release seen by Ukrinform.

“Ukraine’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.3 per cent in 2025, with recent global trade frictions adding additional downside risks to already high uncertainty related to Russia’s war on the country,” the EBRD said.

The Bank’s previous report, in February, had forecast 3.5 per cent growth in 2025.

However, the EBRD’s Regional Economic Prospects (REP), published today, keeps its real GDP growth forecast for Ukraine in 2026 unchanged at 5 per cent, assuming a ceasefire and benefits from post-war reconstruction.

“Ukraine’s external financing to support its budget is secured for 2025. But it has seen a slowdown in economic growth, and accelerating inflation, since the middle of 2024 due to the impact of the war that began with the Russian invasion of February 2022,” the Bank added.

The EBRD, Ukraine’s largest institutional investor, has significantly increased its support in response to the war. The Bank has made more than EUR 7 billion available to Ukraine in the past three years, including EUR 2.4 billion to the energy sector, supporting the real economy by its work on energy security, vital infrastructure, food security, trade and the private sector.