A potential Russian summer offensive in Ukraine is likely to fail as Ukrainian forces are now far better prepared than they were last year. There is a strong likelihood that following such a failure, Russia will genuinely seek to negotiate a ceasefire.
French military expert Xavier Tytelman said this in an interview with an Ukrinform correspondent.
“The mass of troops that Russia has gathered at Europe’s doorstep — current reports suggest around 125,000 troops have been concentrated on the other side of the border. It’s possible that, after certain maneuvers, they may even attempt an assault on Kharkiv, similar to what they did last year,” the expert suggested.
According to him, such intentions on the part of the Russian military are entirely predictable. However, Ukraine’s defense forces now possess strategic reserves and are actively mining territories.
“I’m convinced that the Russians will try once more to launch a large-scale offensive, hoping for more success than last year, when in April-May 2024 they attempted to capture Kharkiv but were stopped by the Ukrainians. Back then, you had less artillery, fewer shells, and no effective means to counter glide bombs. This year, however, the Ukrainians are significantly better prepared than last year. Considering the level of preparedness, I believe this offensive will ultimately fail,” Tytelman said.
At the same time, he believes that only after this failure will Russia seriously consider a ceasefire.
“It will be a failure, and only as a result of that future failure will the Russians begin to seriously consider a ceasefire,” the French analyst said.
He added that as long as Russia continues to escalate tensions, Europe would continue restoring balance by supplying Ukraine with weapons and ammunition.
“This isn’t escalation, provocation, or aggression on the part of Germany or Ukraine’s allies. We’re simply still catching up to the devastation, aggression, attacks, and deaths caused by Russia. The Russians could have peace by tonight if they wanted. But as long as they continue to make things worse, we will, naturally, continue to provide Ukrainians with more and more equipment,” the expert concluded.
Earlier reports said that the Russian summer offensive of 2025 mirrors last year’s campaign but under altered conditions, notably due to Ukraine’s growing defensive capabilities and continued Western support.
Source: Russia will seek ceasefire only after defeat in summer offensive – French expert
