The Operation Spider Web stunned both our enemies and partners, but the former will continue with their bluff, while from the latter, we are expecting specific actions, not just encouraging statements.
U.S. President Donald Trump has reiterated on numerous occasions that Ukraine “has no cards in this war”. Since Sunday, June 1, only the lazy have not mentioned those cards and trump cards, because the brilliant drone operation carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the number of Russian aircraft hit in this attack are amounting to a Top Trump card. The Mossad correctly assessed the results of Ukraine’s special operation Spider Web, during which a total of 41 Russian strategic bombers were neutralized. “The Ukrainian operation against Russia is a wakeup call on the Era of Drone Warfare. One man once said Ukraine doesn’t have cards. This proved to be wrong,” the Israeli Intelligence and Special Operations Agency Mossad said on its X platform. On June 1, Kyiv carried out a secret operation that can reshape the balance of power in the war, according to The Telegraph.
And with this background at hand Ukrainian delegation arrived in Istanbul for a new round of negotiations with Russia. Nothing is yet known about the outcome of the Istanbul talks between Russia and Ukraine at this point, but they are unlikely to lead to a breakthrough, as The Times has already predicted. Be that as it may, the circumstances have changed somewhat since the head of the Russian negotiating delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, uttered his famous “We can fight forever, can you?”, and our enemies and partners at least have to take some account of this.
HAD THE NEGOTIATIONS BEEN REALLY MEANINGFUL, A TANGIBLE RESULT COULD HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED
Experts and the media community had a reason to refer to the talks with Russia as a peace theater, an imitation – despite the fact that the process is moving forward, at least formally, we are not expecting a truce to happen. “I am not expecting any meaningful results from these negotiations. Everything suggests that the Russians are not ready to make any concessions, but will persist with their ultimatums, hoping that Western partners will put pressure on Ukraine,” argus Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, an international affairs analyst. It is important for Russia to continue dragging out time, playing the negotiation process, so that Donald Trump does not give an order to impose tougher sanctions against it and secondary sanctions against its partners. From Istanbul negotiations, we can expect nothing but an exchange of prisoners, which is important, indeed, but is not an element to the ceasefire plan as such.
Second round of Russo-Ukrainian Istanbul negotiations. Photo: video screengrab
“Putin is still hoping to achieve major breakthroughs on the battlefield during his Summer offensive campaign, and, after having gained ground in newly seized territories, to go to negotiations in the second half of the year and dictate his own maximalist demands,” he says. “But, I think, after Ukraine’s June 1 drone operation, he has really got nervous.” Because Russia, according to Zhelikhovsky, is bluffing when it declares on various platforms that it is ready to fight endlessly. And now there is a reason to think about whether it is worth dragging out the war at all – who knows where and when a new blow will be dealt and whether, over time, it will be necessary to go to negotiations not from the position of ultimatums, but in search of compromises. “Maybe their delegation to the negotiations will become, at least, less enthusiastic, because they behaved absolutely shamelessly during the previous round, threatening to seize new regions, etc.,” the expert comments, and continues, “The latest developments will force them to revise if not their demands, then, at least, their behavior, and the Russians will become more pliable in one way or another – if not in Istanbul, then on other platforms.”
It is unlikely that the Russians will give in to anything after the SBU’s stunning special operation – this is not true to form for Putin, says Maksym Yakovlev, a holder of Master’s degree in political sciences and head of the international relations department and director of the School of Political Analytics at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. The negotiation process seemed doomed from the very beginning, at least because the makeup of the Russian delegation looks mocking. But it is good that Ukraine has once again communicated to its Western partners: is the Russian propaganda claiming we are losing the war? This is not the case, actually, because we do have the capabilities and resources even for comprehensive, sophisticated operations. “It is good that there are not yet any indications of our partners being annoyed or upset, blaming Ukraine of derailing the negotiations. Because we agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, but the Russian Federation did not, dragging on for an incomprehensible reason, – says the expert. – But propagandists have already voiced such a narrative – how can we negotiate with Ukraine when it only harms the process”. The Ukrainian delegation came to Istanbul with a roadmap for achieving a sustainable peace settlement and no one can reproach the country for not striving for peace, Zhelikhovsky believes.
It was good to show that we are capable of further weakening Russia, the myths about whose military might are still strong in the West. There are fears that, had this hadn’t worked against us – the Europeans have traditionally delayed the provision of military assistance — then they will suddenly decide that the Ukrainians will be able to cope on their own, why do help them then? But they will not decide so, Yakovlev is convinced. “The logic should be different – we are doing what we can with our resources, and the more of them you give us, the tougher we will fight,” he says. And now, the principle has once again proved itself: it is worth helping those who are ready to help themselves.
SBU Chief Vasyl Maliuk planning Spider Web. Photo Credit: SBU
The June 1 Spider Web drone operation was like a message to our partners: we are ready to fight, but just need your support. “It would be good if we finally received the means and permission to strike deep into the Russian territory,” says Stanislav Zhelikhovsky. “But even now we have creative approaches to reach the targets that are unreachable even for the American Tomahawks.” That is, Ukraine is capable of carrying out special operations that not all Western countries would be able to carry out.
SPECIAL OPERATION #2: CONVINCE TRUMP
European partners have not yet given any reason to doubt their support will be as thorough and responsive as possible, so the burning Russian airfields should only consolidate their position. The main intrigue is what Washington thinks of it, who, as the Axios news outlet reported, did not share plans for Spider Web operation. Neither did it share intelligence with Ukraine for Operation Spider Web, according to CBS News. “I monitored how the Americans responded – there is no official response yet, and that’s good, because if a negative statement had immediately appeared, saying Zelensky was a provocateur, it would have been a bad signal,” says Oleksandr Krayev, an international policy analyst at the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council.
Ideally, they should have praised us like the Mossad did, but Donald Trump didn’t do so, neither did the Pentagon, they just said they were notified and were watching. “This is better than it could have been. They see that we are adding strength to our negotiating position, we are capable of doing it, and we can be worked with,” he says. Trump’s main argument was that Ukraine is asking for help, but it has no chance, the expert reminds, so there is no reason for the United States to intervene. And then it became clear that there are chances even without US assistance. “And this is a good counterargument to Trump’s accusations,” says Krayev. “The most important thing is to demonstrate that the Ukrainians are strong, full-fledged, adequate partners – the kind the United States needs.”
First satellite images showing the aftermath of a major Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Belaya air base in Irkutsk Oblast, revealing significant damage to Moscow’s fleet of strategic bombers
“Putin is hopeful that Trump will continue pushing for a ceasefire. He shows no desire to act from a position of strength towards Russia, and this creates, in particular, the conditions for Russia to send such a low-level delegation to the negotiations and put forward the same demands as before,” says Stanislav Zhelikhovsky. “So far, I don’t see that Trump is ready to put tougher sanctions on Russia, waiting to see where this process will end up.” But besides Moscow’s expectations, there is also reality, and this reality is that, in the U.S. political arena, increasingly more voices are being heard demanding increased pressure on Moscow. “U.S. citizens, as polls show, overwhelmingly support this, and Donald Trump cannot ignore this”.
Tatyana Nehoda, Kyiv
Headline photo credit: SBU
Source: Russo-Ukrainian Istanbul negotiations: SBU has added trump cards to Ukraine’s hand
