China is pragmatically using cooperation with Belarus to strengthen its influence in Europe, supporting the Lukashenko regime in exchange for geopolitical benefits, in particular Minsk’s transit role of Minsk.
This opinion was expressed in a comment to Ukrinform by the Director of the Russian and Belarusian Studies Program at the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council, Candidate of Historical Sciences Yaroslav Chornohor.
“China uses cooperation with Russia, Belarus, Brazil, and African countries to strengthen its own positions around the world. Everything that China does is in China’s interest. In this regard, Lukashenko is a convenient partner for China – he is not so free in maneuvers as to put forward any demands to Beijing, while minimal assistance from China would significantly support the Lukashenko regime and allow him to retain power in Belarus,” the expert said.
The pundit noted that the specific results of the meeting between Xi and Lukashenko have not yet been reported, but, in his opinion, serious negotiations took place during the visit to ensure that Belarus remains a reliable partner, so to speak, “a Belarusian balcony to the European Union,” because given the situation between China and the United States, interaction with the EU is becoming ever more important for China.
“One of the confirmations that China has a certain influence on Lukashenko is that before the visit, the Belarusians stated that the Zapad-2025 exercises would be moved from the border with the EU deeper into Belarus. I think not the least role to this end was played by the desire of the PRC, which seeks to build even closer relations with the European Union, and Belarus plays a certain transit role in this regard, which is important for the Chinese,” Chornohor noted.
The expert also suggested that Lukashenko’s visits to China saw no objections from Putin.
“Whether he likes it or not is another matter, but China has its own interests in Belarus, and Russia must take this into account. I would not put the question in such a way that on the part of Belarus this is a demonstration of independence from Russia – it is rather a fact of the influence that China has on both Russia and Belarus,” says the director of the Russian and Belarusian Studies Program at the Ukrainian Prism.
As for which side gained more from the visit, the expert noted that it took place in line with Chinese policy.
“Here, Lukashenko’s actorship, as well as in relations with the Russian Federation, is lower than his vis-à-vi has. Therefore, Lukashenko balances between Russia and China, but the Russian leadership also understands that preserving him in power is in their interest. And for Lukashenko to stay in power, Russia’s help alone is not enough, because the Russian economy is currently in decline and in many ways, it seeks China’s support, including economic one. Therefore, I think Lukashenko flew to Beijing to enlist China’s financial support,” Chornohor assessed.
As reported, self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has been on a visit to Beijing since June 2, where he met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at his Zhongnanhai residence.
Source: Expert: Xi wants to strengthen influence in EU through cooperation with Belarus
