Achieving a ceasefire this year is hypothetically possible, but it requires providing Ukraine with massive military assistance, since Putin has no intention of stopping until he reaches the administrative borders of all Ukrainian regions he has included in the Russian Constitution as part of Russia’s territory.
This opinion was expressed to a Ukrinform correspondent by Nicolas Richoux, a French Army General and defense consultant.
“We’re not jumping ahead, but I have doubts that he (Putin) will stop until he achieves his goals. Practically speaking, seizing these regions is his short-term objective, while the longer-term goal may be the conquest of the whole of Ukraine. Moreover, reaching these goals is, in his view, practically a prerequisite for a ceasefire,” the general stated.
According to him, a ceasefire is typically a technical military gesture that opens the door to negotiations. However, Russia’s initial demand — that Ukraine give up its territories — already indicates a complete unwillingness to engage in real talks.
“That’s proof he doesn’t want to negotiate. He will keep fighting until the front line matches the administrative borders of the regions. That’s why I have serious doubts about achieving anything long-lasting this year, even if we see a one-time ceasefire,” he emphasized.
The general believes that the future of the war will largely depend on whether the United States will influence Putin.
“We don’t know what they (the U.S.) intend to do. Europe seems to be gradually getting itself into combat readiness — but too slowly and in an uncoordinated fashion. On the other hand, it is Trump who holds the key to all of this,” he said.
In the general’s opinion, pressure from sanctions alone is not enough. Only massive military support to Ukraine could force Putin to the negotiating table.
“You know, sanctions are very important, but they’re a slow poison. The pace of economic sanctions is not the pace of war. The pace of war is immediate — you need troops, ammunition, logistics, tanks, aircraft, and so on. But economically, when you impose sanctions that last five or ten years, maybe they’ll weaken Russia, maybe they’ll prevent it from climbing another step up. But otherwise, sanctions won’t lead to a ceasefire. The only condition is massive assistance, declared with the message: ‘Since you don’t want to negotiate now, we will massively support Ukraine with long-range weapons, without limiting the American contribution.’ Only then would that have an impact on Russia,” Richoux explained.
As reported by Ukrinform, the Nordic countries are providing Ukraine with military support that is second only to the volume of aid from the United States. This shows that the European Union has enormous potential to increase this support to strengthen Ukraine’s position both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.
Photo: Daniel WAMBACH
Source: Ceasefire possible this year only if Ukraine receives massive military aid – French General
