Western military aid to Ukraine, economic pressure, and Russian battlefield losses could shift Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin’s perception of the war and potentially compel him to come to the negotiating table.
According to Ukrinform, this is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“Any increased economic pressure against Russia — while a positive policy development — by itself is insufficient to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table or change Putin’s theory of victory. The continuation of Western military aid to Ukraine remains pivotal to the execution of a pressure campaign against Russia that could force Putin to recalculate his theory of victory,” the report reads.
ISW notes that Putin’s theory of victory is based on the assumption that Russian forces can maintain slow but steady progress on the battlefield longer than Ukrainian forces can hold out, and longer than the West is willing to support Ukraine. Therefore, analysts believe that Putin will likely continue to rely on this strategy to avoid engaging meaningfully in peace talks with the United States and Ukraine.
The report emphasizes that achieving peace in Ukraine that aligns with U.S. interests requires either sustained Russian battlefield losses or a significant Russian battlefield setback.
Therefore, the United States must continue to equip Ukrainian troops, as Russian battlefield losses remain a key factor behind Russia’s current issues with equipment, manpower, and its economic problems, ISW highlights.
“Western aid, particularly of weapons systems that only the United States can provide at scale and quickly, would allow Ukrainian forces to better defend their positions, slow Russian advances, and inflict even more serious losses on the Russian military,” the report states.
ISW also points out that rising Russian casualty rates on the battlefield, particularly when they are disproportionate to the territorial gains, could threaten Putin’s efforts to balance “butter and guns” and maintain domestic support.
As Ukrinform previously reported, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia’s total combat losses since the beginning of its full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, up to June 8, 2025, amount to approximately 996,150 personnel, including 1,120 in the past 24 hours.
Source: Western aid to Ukraine, sanctions, and Russian losses could force Putin to negotiate – ISW
