Former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker does not see the prospect of achieving peace in Ukraine by the end of the year, though he allows for the possibility of a ceasefire.
He said this at the GLOBSEC conference in Prague, according to an Ukrinform correspondent.
“I don’t think we are going to have peace. I think we may have a ceasefire. […] But I don’t believe there’s going to be any peace in Ukraine for the simple reason that Vladimir Putin has maximalist objectives about the extermination of Ukraine as a sovereign state and as a people with national identity. And it’s not going to change. So we can end up with the possibility of ceasefire and then the need to basically man the barricades to prevent future Russian attacks and to strengthen Ukraine as much and as quickly as possible, while we watch Putin try to rebuild on his side. No one is going to be trying to attack Russia and defeat Moscow, but we do have to be prepared to have an uneasy stand-off over occupied Ukraine for a long time,” Volker said.
In his opinion, achieving a ceasefire will require “squeezing” Russia’s finances, because waging war with budget deficits is difficult.
“So we really have to ‘squeeze’ that. We have to make sure that Ukraine has a continued supply of weapons and ammunition, including from the United States. That can be on a paid-for basis, not on a taxpayer-funded basis,” Volker added.
He emphasized the importance of the role of the U.S. and Donald Trump in ensuring that such arms sales are permitted and possible.
Volker also expressed hope that American lawmakers would finally start to do “the right thing.” He recalled that for the first three years of the war, the Biden administration introduced sanctions in name, and later made exemptions, particularly for payments to Russian banks for energy. Thus, he said, the administration did not want to really squeeze Russian energy supply, which means Putin has not actually faced any serious difficulties.
He noted that the current sanctions package leaves in place the primary sanctions against Russia, sanctions on the so-called shadow fleet, eliminates exemptions, and adds sanctions against those helping Russia evade the primary ones.
“This creates a very strong penalty and deterrent for countries, banks, people who would be trying to evade these sanctions. I think that would be significant. And coupled with an effort to keep global oil prices low, that would also have an impact on Putin’s budget,” Volker said.
As reported, there are enough votes in the U.S. Senate to pass the sanctions package developed by Senator Lindsey Graham, but lawmakers, under pressure from the administration, have been slow to vote on it.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham on June 2 to discuss coordination between the EU and the U.S. regarding sanctions in response to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson has voiced his support for renewed efforts in Congress to implement “bone-crushing” sanctions against the Kremlin for Putin’s brutal war on Ukraine.
Source: Volker: Peace in Ukraine cannot be achieved this year
