Russia, who is currently showing no readiness for serious negotiations with Ukraine, may change its mind depending on the developments on the battlefield and the strength of pressure from the West. Among the means of pressure are tougher sanctions and the continuation and strengthening of military support for Kyiv, in particular from Germany, who is shoring up investments in weapons production projects on Ukraine’s territory. However, Europe must finally stop trusting Russian propaganda and fearing Putin, and finally support Ukraine more vigorously.
Ukrinform spoke about this with Nico Lange, a non-resident Senior Fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). Nico is also a Senior Fellow at the Munich Security Conference in Berlin and Munich. He teaches at the Chair of Military History at the University of Potsdam and at the Hertie School of Governance. His research topics are the Russian war against Ukraine, new technologies in security and defense, and cyber security. Lange served as Chief of Staff at the German Ministry of Defense from 2019-2022. Prior, he was Deputy General Manager of CDU Deutschlands and State Commissioner for Innovation and Strategy in the government of Saarland. He was posted in Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. before. Lange speaks fluent Ukrainian and Russian.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEW NEGOTIATIONS WITH RUSSIA DEPENDS ON THE SITUATION ON THE BATTLEFIELD
– Mr. Lange, two meetings between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations have taken place in Istanbul. Should we expect a third meeting given Moscow’s outright unwillingness to negotiate?
– Yes, there will definitely be a third meeting. Whether there will be the third or thirties one, we don’t know, but there will probably be a lot of them. And perhaps they will not remain at this level, because at some point the issues have to be resolved. But so far there has been no desire on the part of Russia to hold meaningful negotiations. Whether this willingness will increase in the coming weeks and months will depend a lot on what happens on the front. And as well on whether Ukraine’s partners will put pressure on Putin – with the help of sanctions and other tools available to them. But the probability of Russia becoming truly willing to negotiate certainly exists.
– The next, 18th package of EU sanctions will hopefully come into force next week. And what other tools are available, besides Taurus missiles, of course? We realize that there is no miracle weapon or a panacea…
– Sanctions are a step in the right direction, especially when they affect the Russian energy sector.
I believe that much more can be done. For example, to cap oil prices even lower, neutralize Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers and prohibit its ships from entering ports. The Russians circumvent multiple sanctions, in particular, through Central Asia. Something can be done about this too.
And, of course, military support for Ukraine should be continued. This includes Taurus, but also many other measures. Investment in the Ukrainian defense industrial sector is the right way; more can be done in this regard, including industrial partnerships.
Yes, there is no “magic solution”, but there are many things that can be done. In my opinion, the Europeans are making a mistake by sitting and waiting for too long, instead of taking more active measures.
EUROPE STILL CONTINUES WAITING FOR DECISIVE STEPS FROM THE USA
– The Europeans have been doing this for more than three years now – they sit, wait and introduce some new sanctions… From Ukraine’s point of view, this is too little and too slow. Why can’t they deliver one heavy blow? What are Western politicians waiting for?
– It’s also difficult for me to explain what they are actually waiting for. Maybe for a miracle…
Yes, they are awaiting a miracle. And that’s the problem.
Above all else, they are waiting for the US to take decisive steps. And that was symbolic: the best thing the four leaders of European state and government could do when in Kyiv was to call Trump.
Everyone is waiting for decisive steps to be taken by the U.S.
And I think Putin is taking advantage of this situation. He sees that there is no real determination on the part of the other party. That is why he is continuing.
But everything has its limits, so his capabilities are limited. The sanctions are already hitting him. That is why I believe that in the coming months there may be a chance for a better development of events.
At the same time, I also understand the frustration of the Ukrainian party over things moving so slowly.
RUSSIA’S CAPABILITIES ARE INSUFFICIENT EVEN FOR OCCUPYING ALL OF DONBAS
– Russia is currently conducting its summer offensive operations. How do you assess its chances of success in this campaign?
– Russia’s military capabilities are limited.
This talk of the summer offensive and announcements about each village captured is primarily an information warfare operation. Unfortunately, people in the West and in the Western media are often impressed by this and think: “Oh, the big thing will happen soon!”
In this way, Russia is influencing the Western discourse.
The problem for Ukraine is that Russian troops are currently actively operating in the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions. This will complicate future negotiations.
Ukraine is experiencing a personnel shortage in this large territory, so Russia can often simply bypass positions and achieve advances, because there are too few Ukrainian soldiers on the front line. Russia exploits these weaknesses. But Russia cannot even conquer all of Donbas and is going to achieve no major breakthroughs.
RUSSIAN MILITARY LEADERSHIP PROMISED TOO MUCH TO PUTIN
– Do you share the view that if the Russian offensive fails in the summer and fall, Russia will not be able to organize another major offensive? Will they be able to gather their forces and try again?
– As I said, everything has its limits, and Russia has many problems to overcome. There is no way to know whether this is the last major offensive or whether others will follow.
Russia is absolutely ruthless when it comes to sacrificing its own soldiers. Putin has no problem sending thousands of Russians to their deaths. So we can probably expect him to continue.
I get the impression that the Russian military leadership has promised too much about what they can achieve with these offensives.
– Promised to the Russians or to Putin?
– To Putin.
I believe that the Russian people have little interest in the details of this war. So I don’t expect anything from it.
But I believe that Putin thinks he can achieve more than he actually can. And that’s why he is still willing to launch offensive actions.
In the coming weeks – as far as we can judge now – Putin will certainly try to achieve even more militarily and evade meaningful negotiations.
– And Trump is now playing into Putin’s hands – not that he is helping directly, but Putin seems to think that Trump shares his opinion that he has the right to strike in retaliation to the Spider Web drone operation. While on the subject, what do you think of these SBU operations against Russian military airfields?
– Firstly, regarding Trump, we cannot rely on his help.
Ukraine understands this clearly, but the Europeans as well must understand this clearly. Ukraine is located in Europe – this is a matter of European security, and the Europeans must solve it. Nevertheless, Europeans still believe in a miracle from the U.S., and that is part of the problem. Some Europeans even say that they cannot cope on their own, but they must be able to. Because if Europeans cannot do this, then there will be no peace in Europe.
We have to ask ourselves: what else do Europeans need so as to finally wake up and do what is necessary? They have the strength for this.
Regarding Operation Spiderweb: I hope it was not the last one of this kind.
I think it was wise for Ukraine to completely ignore all the advice and talk of many Western partners and to do what suits its own security interests.
It is too bad that few planes were destroyed. In my opinion, it would be good if all Russian bombers were destroyed. By the way, it would also be good for European security. Such is my opinion.
EUROPE MUST FINALLY OVERCOME ITS FEAR OF PUTIN
– And the Russians are now threatening to retaliate against Ukraine with horrific attacks …
– What is Russia supposed to do that is so horrific?
Putin has tried everything in three years to conquer Ukraine. But Ukraine is not going to be conquered.
I think that people in Ukraine are right when they say: this all is just talk and threats, what else can he do?
Should he bomb cities now? Attack Kyiv? He has been doing this all for a long time.
In fact, there is no need to be impressed by this Russian circus.
And Putin now has one less tool.
Unfortunately, this psychological war waged by Russia is still attracting the attention of the Western media, and I think it is part of the problem.
But everyone in Ukraine who were involved in this operation realized that there would be consequences and that Russia would retaliate. Nevertheless, it is right not to be afraid. First, the fear of Putin must be overcome.
– There is also fear in Germany itself. There are those who believe when Russia says that Germany could become a party to the war and something terrible will happen to it too…
– Yes, people in Germany believe that they too are affected by the war. This, of course, says something about the kind of discourse we are having in Germany these days and how much nonsense is being pronounced there.
There will always be someone who thinks something and says something. And just because someone in Germany says something does not mean that the government holds that position. So there is a lot of idle chatter there.
So I would not run around worried about everything someone says in Germany. There are many people in Ukraine as well who say something, write or blog about it. But I am not saying: “This is Ukraine”. What is important is what the Ukrainian government does. The same holds true for Germany.
People like me follow the German discourse, we too are involved in it. And that’s what we, Germans, need to figure out among ourselves: where does this tendency come from to trust all sorts of nonsense and write “manifestos” and suchlike? We need to figure it out in Germany.
– So, should we take seriously this “manifesto” signed by individual members of the SPD, in which they call for dialogue with Russia? Isn’t that a threat to the ruling coalition?
– Well, it’s primarily an attack on the power of Lars Klingbeil (Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor) and Boris Pistorius (Defense Minister). And they both have to ultimately defend their positions within their own party. I am expecting they will do it, nothing more.
GERMANY IS CO-FINANCING THREE DRONE PRODUCTION PROJECTS IN UKRAINE
– Boris Pistorius visited Kyiv a few days ago. Before that, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky paid a visit to Berlin, where it was agreed that Germany would co-finance the production of long-range weapons in Ukraine…
– Germany is co-financing three drone production projects that have been going on for a long time. These are not newly launched projects, they do not replicate Taurus or anything like that. These are the projects that are already in progress, Germany is investing money in them, and that is good. This allows them to continue faster and on a larger scale. But nothing fundamentally new is being launched here. I think that not everything was communicated clearly by the German party, some tried to create the impression that something completely new was happening. These are three projects that have been in progress for some time, and now they can progress more effectively, given that 400 million euros will be disbursed for them.
And this is only part of German military aid. If Germany wants to allocate 5 billion euros this year, these projects will be financed with 400 million euros.
This will certainly help Ukraine. I think we need more industrial partnerships. German industry is improving the situation in Ukraine, so it is good to allocate sectors to this industry.
– Minister Pistorius, in Kyiv, was speaking about 9 billion euros...
– Yes, there is no budget at all yet, so he can say whatever he wants. The government, I mean parliament, has yet to endorse the budget.
THE RUSSIAN MISSILE PROGRAM IS PROPAGANDA
– In your opinion, is there currently parity between Russia and Ukraine in terms of drone production?
– You can never say for certain, because the situation is constantly evolving and changing. Ukraine continues to be faster in implementing drone technology innovation, and this continues to be an advantage for Ukraine.
– Isn’t that a miracle?
– If you know Ukrainians, it’s not a miracle at all. Ukrainian people are smart. You have a good education in mathematics and natural sciences, you have good universities. Even before the war, you had the best video game programmers, IT specialists and engineers.
So it is quite obvious that they can do it. And increasing their capabilities now through co-financing is a good thing. Ukrainian weapons and Ukrainian technologies can achieve even more.
And Ukraine must continue to be at the forefront of innovation, because war is evolving so quickly.
Ukrainian drones currently account for 80 percent of the Russian soldiers killed on the battlefield.
– Why don’t we see the Oreshnik that Putin is threatening with? Does such a weapon exist at all?
– There were very few of them. Some never managed to take off. So this modern Russian missile program essentially consists of announcements and propaganda. And Putin, of course, must ask himself: if there are not even digital radios that he has paid for, and the money was spent instead to build villas on the Cote d’Azur, then what is the situation with other things?
So, these missile programs, such as the Oreshnik are at the prototype stage, and it was a prototype that was launched against Dnipro city. But we also know that some of these missiles have not yet been launched.
THE NATO SUMMIT WILL BE BRIEF AND WITHOUT EXTRA MATTERS ON AGENDA
– Regarding the upcoming NATO summit. Ukraine’s expectations are not very high…
– This will be a summit where NATO will focus on itself. It will not be about Ukraine, but rather about new commitments that NATO countries are willing to make. It will go smoothly.
It will be a brief summit that will result in new commitments. But nothing more. And it will not change the situation regarding Ukraine.
– And regarding its future membership too?
– There is no progress on this matter. Regrettably, it is discussed even less than it was in Vilnius or at the previous summit in Washington.
I consider this a negative phenomenon, but the situation is as it is. There will be nothing new there.
– But the issue of membership is not closed for Ukraine, is it?
– Ukraine continues to be aspiring. I think it is quite appropriate. But major NATO countries, such as the USA and Germany, do not want this to happen. And that is why there is no progress on that matter.
– Germany has already played its role, during the time of Angela Merkel’s chancellorship, in 2008…
– I don’t see the new German government looking at it any differently. And the sitting U.S. administration is also objecting. That’s why this issue will not be discussed at the NATO summit. Unfortunately, such is the situation at the moment.
– What can the fresh escalation in the Middle East entail for Ukraine?
– This discourse — oh, everyone is now looking at Israel and no one is looking at Ukraine… But the U.S. still doesn’t do much for Ukraine.
And the U.S. is strong enough to do two things at once. We can do two things at once. We used to be able to do three things at once.
So no way. I think the key question now is will Iran attack American soldiers or American facilities in the Middle East? Will Iran be killing the Americans?
– Will it dare do that?
– It’s Iran…
If so, the United States will be get involved in a bigger war.
But it’s too early to tell; they’ve just started.
Olha Tanasiychuk, Berlin
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