The disintegration of Russia could lead to a large-scale civil war, similar to the Yugoslavia case, but 10 times more dangerous due to Russia’s nuclear arsenal. At the same time, the Putin regime is confidently moving toward economic stagnation and political collapse.
The opinion was shared by French General (retired) Michel Yakovleff, who spoke in an interview with Ukrinform.
“If that happened, we would have Yugoslavia, but 10 times more powerful, with thousands of nuclear warheads. And this is what Europe is very afraid of. The problem they see is a civil war, which, in my opinion, is a very plausible hypothesis. Today, Russia has 17 armies. The situation is similar to Lebanon in 1973. There are many people who have objective reasons to grab each other by the throat. For example, the subjects of the federation that declare independence because it’s their minerals that are exported while all money goes to Moscow. When the Russians start doing this, we know that they will do it ‘for real’, these are not French jokes, and not at all our vision of peace in Europe. This reminds me of a joke from the times of the war in Yugoslavia. You know, as they said then, what do Serbia and a Nokia phone have in common? Every year a new model is smaller than last year’s,” Yakovleff said.
At the same time, in his opinion, the question of the collapse of the Putin regime is a matter of time, and economic problems are already significant.
“The Russians already have problems with oil exports, and their hydrocarbon profits clearly fail to meet their expectations. So, Putin has eaten up most of his reserves. Russia’s economic standstill in 2025 is not ruled out, and there are factors to this end. This is not inflation, because such a regime can survive hyperinflation. But the regime does have problems with survival when their payment chain is blocked. And at the moment, many Russian companies have not enough money to pay, so they offer so-called financial obligations,” he explained.
Among the factors leading to the “implosion” in Russia, the general named the flow of resources from the center to the periphery thanks to the blood money that other regions “earn” from the war in Ukraine, as well as the political confrontation between the periphery and center.
“The confrontation with the center is intensifying. All these republics, parts of the federation, as the Russians say, whose minerals are exploited exclusively in the interests of St. Petersburg and Moscow, while the center sends 50 times fewer soldiers to the front. The logic of things even before the war foresaw the collapse of the Putin regime for reasons of demographics, economic structure, and management. Even before February 2022, Putin’s Russia was not a regime that could exist forever. It is heading straight toward the wall for the same reason that the Soviet Union once did. In February 2022, it only accelerated. At some point, it will collapse, this is a natural evolution. However, Ukraine must survive until that happens,” the expert explained.
As Ukrinform reported, the European Union has long been discussing the actions of the European Community and its member states under various scenarios of developments in Russia, including the collapse of the Russian Federation.
Source: French general explains why Europe doesn’t want Russia to break apart
