Despite increased demand, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar is unlikely to undergo significant changes next week, but the situation with the euro will be more volatile and less predictable.
The relevant statement was made by Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank Taras Liesovyi in a commentary to Ukrinform.
The analyst describes the period at the turn of July and August as another week of stability for the U.S. dollar and, at the same time, increased exchange rate tension for the euro.
Despite increased demand, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar is unlikely to change significantly. This is due to the fact that the National Bank continues to implement a ‘managed flexibility’ regime, which involves gradual adjustment of the exchange rate if necessary.
“The regulator has the ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market through interventions to smooth out fluctuations. According to our estimates, the volume of such operations will not exceed USD 800 million per week – an approximate figure that was observed in July, when the foreign exchange demand increased significantly compared to June (in fact, this week the figures are more or less similar),” Liesovyi told.
In his words, the current fluctuations of the U.S. dollar, as well as the difference between the rates on the interbank and cash markets, will remain insignificant. The main factor of stabilization will be the further slowdown of inflation, which will positively affect the foreign exchange market and allow maintaining moderate exchange rate changes.
At the end of the business week (August 1, 2025), Liesovyi expects the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to range between UAH 41.8 and UAH 42.1. In contrast to the beginning of the year, when the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar was UAH 42.02, the maximum possible growth is approximately 0.4%.
“As for the euro, its exchange rate is expected to be more volatile and less predictable. Fluctuations in the euro currency will largely be determined by the global situation of the U.S. dollar/euro pair and domestic changes in the hryvnia exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. In general, the ratio between the euro and the U.S. dollar will remain approximately within 1.15–1.17, which will correspond to the euro exchange rate corridor in Ukraine at around UAH 48.5-49.7,” Liesovyi explained.
As predicted by the expert, on July 28-August 3, 2025, the average difference between the interbank and cash market rates will be UAH 0.1-0.15. Meanwhile, the average weekly exchange rate deviations will be within 1-1.5% of the starting rate of the week.
A reminder that, as of July 25, 2025, the official exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia was set as follows: UAH 41.77 for the U.S. dollar (UAH 41.76 as of July 24, 2025); UAH 49.10 for the euro (UAH 48.98 as of July 24, 2025).
Source: No significant changes to affect exchange rate of U.S. dollar next week – expert’s opinion
