ISW analyzes Putin and Lukashenko’s statements on Oreshnik, peace talks

According to Ukrinform, the ISW report states that during their meeting on Friday, August 1, Putin and Lukashenko projected military strength and economic stability as part of Putin’s ongoing effort to convince Trump that sanctions and military support to Ukraine will not alter the outcome of the war in Ukraine and that Trump should abandon his efforts to resolve the war.

Putin claimed that Russia produced its first serial Oreshnik ballistic missile complex and missiles, and that the Oreshnik system entered into service. Putin claimed that Russian and Belarusian specialists are working to identify future Oreshnik deployment locations by the end of 2025, and Lukashenko stated that Russia will station Oreshnik systems in Belarus in 2026.

“ISW assessed at the time of Russia’s first Oreshnik launch in November 2024 that Russia is leveraging the Oreshnik system as part of a reflexive control campaign aimed at undermining Western resolve to militarily support Ukraine.[47] Putin’s and Lukashenko’s August 1 statements about Oreshniks are similarly trying to posture military strength to convince Trump not to follow through with his threat of economic repercussions,” the report says.

The ISW also cited Lukashenko’s recent claims that Russia and Belarus have undertaken significant measures in recent years to offset the impact of Western sanctions and that the two countries will survive additional future sanctions.

“Lukashenko’s statements are the latest in the Kremlin’s ongoing effort to posture economic stability to its foreign and domestic audiences and to discourage the West from levying additional sanctions against Russia by claiming that sanctions have no impact on the Russian economy,” ISW analysts said.

ISW believes that Putin is feigning interest in peace negotiations while Ukrainian officials, in contrast, continue to demonstrate genuine interest in peace – as evidenced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s August 1 statement that he remains willing to meet with Putin and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha’s July 31 statement that Ukraine wants to end the war in 2025.

“Putin’s and Lukashenko’s August 1 statements underscore Putin’s continued commitment to his theory of victory, which assumes that Russia can outlast Western support for Ukraine and will be able to seize the entirety of Ukraine through slow and costly advances,” ISW analysts said.