Former Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. (2006-2010) and France (2014-2020) Oleh Shamshur considers it unlikely that U.S. President Donald Trump will change his approach at the meeting with Putin and start putting tough pressure on the Kremlin, since a certain change in the White House’s stance was based on an emotional component rather than a deep analysis of the Russian threat.
The diplomat expressed this opinion in a comment to Ukrinform.
Shamshur noted that the peace plans recently reported by the media, American politicians, and officials are based on the assumption that Ukraine must make territorial concessions.
“That is, it is not very far from what Putin wants, or very close. One way or another, the territorial division of Ukraine is being proposed. The position on NATO will obviously not change either, meaning that there will be no real security guarantees. And thus Ukraine will end up in a very difficult situation,” the diplomat predicted.
In his opinion, it now seems that Trump and Putin will agree on something between themselves, that is, they will propose some kind of plan, based on what we know, – completely unacceptable and dangerous for Ukraine – and then they will “push” it through to both Europeans and Ukrainians.
“That is, I have no reason to believe that Trump will suddenly see the light at this meeting and be ready to put tough pressure on Putin, at least not now. If Trump wanted to do that, he would have done it before this meeting,” Shamshur stressed.
In this context, he noted that many people in Ukraine and the West began to talk prematurely about a change in Trump’s attitude toward Putin as soon as the U.S. President criticized the Kremlin dictator. However, according to the former Ambassador, it should not be forgotten that this evolution began on a very fragile emotional basis when Trump realized the risks to his reputation posed by his soft stance toward Putin.
“Then he began to express more or less harsh opinions, but even in this case, the criticism was much less harsh than might have been expected. And since this was not based on Trump’s deep understanding of the Russian threat to the interests of the United States and the dire consequences of Ukraine’s defeat, he very quickly switched from a willingness to impose sanctions on Russia again to a mode of seeking understanding with Putin to implement his illusory plans to reformat relations with Russia and play some kind of grand game,” the former Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. stated.
According to the diplomat, Trump wants to keep the option open to talk to Putin as a partner.
Shamshur claimed that it was clear from the start that Trump’s main goal was to stop the Russian-Ukrainian war because it distracts him from other issues he thinks are more important, both internationally and domestically.
“But he is ready to do so under any circumstances, including at the expense of our national interests, which he does not care about at all because he does not consider them essential for the United States. That is, he wants to secure his political interests, even if in this case it is obvious that they contradict the security and strategic interests of the United States and the democratic world in general,” the diplomat believes.
Shamshur considers that Ukraine needs to act in two sectors to minimize possible losses from a possible change in the U.S. stance on aid to our country. In particular, in foreign policy, it is necessary to intensify cooperation with European partners so that they move from statements to real action — supplying weapons, imposing sanctions against Russia, and, as a “nuclear” option, confiscating or at least using frozen Russian assets. According to Shamshur, this would be a point of no return for Europe in its relations with Moscow.
In the domestic sphere, the former Ambassador emphasized the urgent need for a profound consolidation of society, full-scale mobilization, and a shared recognition that the present moment demands self-reliance — that no one will come to our aid but ourselves.
Ukrinform reported that Trump intends to meet with Putin on August 15 in Alaska. At the same time, the Head of White House said on Monday that this meeting would be aimed at understanding each other’s stances. In addition, he said he would call for an end to the war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, President Zelensky emphasized that Putin wants to exchange a pause in the war for the legalization of the occupation of part of Ukraine.
Source: Former Ambassador: Trump is unlikely to shift stance and exert pressure on Kremlin
