German expert warns that emerging territorial disputes in Ukraine jeopardize international order

This opinion was expressed in a comment to Ukrinform by Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS).

“It is dangerous that territorial issues are being raised by some politicians, for example, the Secretary General of NATO made a similar statement. I hope that this is only about Russia maintaining control over the occupied territories during the ceasefire, and not about Ukraine officially ceding territory. I hope that this is not the general policy of the West; otherwise, it would be the end of the international order established after 1945,” the expert said.

He agrees with the assumption of Bild journalists that U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Wiltkoff, during his recent visit to Moscow, after which a meeting between Trump and Vladimir Putin was announced, may have misunderstood some of the Russian statements regarding intentions to “exchange territories.” Umland recalled that Witkoff’s negotiating style had previously been harshly criticized for going to Putin without proper diplomatic support and his interpreter, despite having no diplomatic experience.

“He has no experience in international diplomacy, and now he is being sent to resolve such global political issues. And yes, the result is such misunderstandings,” the analyst believes.

Regarding the likelihood of a meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Alaska on August 15, Umland said: “Right now, it looks like the meeting between Trump and Putin will take place, but whether Zelensky will join them or whether Trump will meet with Zelensky is unclear. Of course, perhaps one of the two parties may cancel the summit, but planning is so far advanced that it will probably take place in one way or another.”

According to the expert, the problem for Trump is that being seen alongside Putin will not reflect well on the American president, at least among part of his electorate. Many are critical of the Russian leader; Putin is unpopular in the U.S., and most Americans support Ukraine.

On the other hand, the analyst believes that, for Putin, holding the summit as a show would be a great victory. According to the analyst, Putin is currently getting his way. He does not take the threat from the U.S. or Europe seriously, and he is pushing his agenda. He has been successful so far, as sanctions remain limited and more serious restrictions have not yet been introduced, such as high tariffs or sanctions against the entire “shadow fleet” of the Russian Federation or the confiscation of frozen Russian assets.

Umland also admitted that he was surprised the meeting between Trump and Putin was to take place in Alaska. The expert recalled the memes in the Russian media claiming that Alaska belongs to Russia and will one day return to Russia. There are also conspiracy theories that Alaska was not sold but leased by Russia in 1867 or that Russia never received the money paid by the U.S. at the time. Against this backdrop, the choice of Alaska is surprising. He suggests that the symbolic significance may lie in its proximity to Russia. However, the symbolism may be completely different for Russians than for Americans, Umland added.

He believes that it is too early to discuss the potential outcomes of the upcoming meeting. Regarding the idea of a partial ceasefire, particularly the use of long-range weapons, the expert believes it would benefit Russia because Ukraine has carried out successful long-range drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, industrial facilities, and military bases in recent months, and Moscow wants to stop this. However, Umland believes that this would be disadvantageous for Ukraine because its technological superiority is crucial for compensating for its human resource deficit compared to Russia.

As reported, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated in an interview with an American TV channel that the issue of territories will have to be discussed. According to Rutte, recognizing that Russia de facto controls some of Ukraine’s territory should not constitute political recognition de jure.

U.S. President Donald Trump intends to meet with Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine is ready for real decisions that can bring peace, but Ukrainians will not give their land to invaders.

Zelensky stressed that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to exchange a pause in the war for the legalization of the occupation of part of Ukraine’s territory.