The deployment of the new Flamingo missile into serial production and its effective use would strip Russia of the advantage of strategic depth, which the aggressor has relied upon by relocating key assets out of reach in hopes of shielding them from strikes.
This was stated in an exclusive comment to Ukrinform by Fabian Hoffmann, a Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project (ONP), University of Oslo, and an expert in missile technologies.
“I think this is a really important step because it signals that Ukraine is now able to move from the light missile capabilities, the long range drones and mini cruise missiles towards what you could refer to as a heavy missile capability, the “heavy hitters” that are equipped with a much more significant payload capacity,” the expert noted.
Acknowledging certain successes in strikes against Russian oil and gas infrastructure with lighter weapons, the expert emphasized: “There’s a massive difference when a 1,150 kg payload, which the producers say the Flamingo has, penetrates and explodes inside the target as compared to a 20 to 100 kg payload”. Another key factor is its range of 3,000 kilometers: “3,000 kilometers is unprecedented, not just in the Ukrainian arsenal, but also in the European one”.
“Now this allows Ukraine to threaten pretty much any target west of the Urals. It means that Russia’s strategic depth, to which it has access in order to move those targets out of range, has potentially been nullified and is no longer an advantage,” the expert remarked.
At the same time, the survivability of the new missile against Russian air and missile defenses remains uncertain, since the Flamingo has not yet been thoroughly tested in combat conditions.
“The thing is that the missile will have a massive radar cross-section because of its top-mounted part. Although we don’t know that for sure, but I assume it’s a turbofan engine. Also, you have to consider just the sheer size of the missile and the fact that it lacks typical stealth characteristics,” Hoffmann noted.
The expert stressed that the real question is whether Russia still has enough air and missile defense systems to cover all possible approach routes. “Very likely that’s not the case. We’ve seen Ukraine penetrate Ukrainian airspace successfully with these converted two-seater airplanes that can maybe fly 100 to 200 kilometers an hour. So Ukraine will be able to do that at one point also with the Flamingo,” Hoffmann said.
Proper operational use of the missile is another critical element of effectiveness: “How much intelligence do Ukrainian forces have on you, which attack vectors are available, which approaches are uncovered in this specific moment”.
It is also important to consider the missile’s resilience against electronic warfare, Hoffmann added, noting that it is not yet possible to confirm the manufacturer’s claim that the missile employs a protected satellite receiver.
Regarding production pace, the projected seven missiles per day, as allegedly planned by the manufacturer, is a “pretty optimistic” forecast, while producing even one missile per day would already be a significant achievement.
“If you compare that to missile output elsewhere – the United States, and especially in Europe – that is a pretty good number,” the expert stressed.
At the same time, he argued that in the long term, Ukraine must scale up production of this model and other heavy missiles. “The short and/or medium-range ballistic missile capabilities that Ukraine has been working on probably also fall under this category,” the expert said.
Having an arsenal of such missiles will also be crucial in the post-war period, when Ukraine will need to develop effective deterrence capabilities against renewed aggression, Hoffmann underlined.
“These types of missile capabilities can play a major and really important role in that, and they can very effectively deter Russia simply by demonstrating that Ukraine will be able, if they have access to a large enough stockpile of these types of capabilities, to destroy, damage and disrupt Russian critical targets, including infrastructure to economic, thus signaling that any renewed aggression will be essentially untenable” the expert stressed.
As reported, Ukraine has unveiled its long-range Flamingo cruise missile with a range of 3,000 km. Its photo was published by photojournalist Efrem Lukatsky on Facebook. In the description of the photo, he noted that the missile has already entered serial production. The photo was taken on Thursday, August 14, at an undisclosed location. From the caption, it is known that the development was carried out by the company Fire Point.
President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that successful tests of the Flamingo have already taken place, and mass production is expected to begin in January–February.
Photo: IDEX 2025
Source: Flamingo missiles could nullify strategic depth Russia relies on – expert
