Lithuanian military intelligence has reported that, according to its data, 30,000 troops from Belarus and Russia will participate in the Zapad-2025 military exercises.
According to Delfi, cited by Ukrinform, this was stated by Mindaugas Mažonas, head of the Second Operational Services Department (AOTD), in the LRT television program Week.
“According to our intelligence data, up to 30 thousand Belarusian and Russian soldiers in total will participate. And in Belarus itself there will be only 8 thousand, of which only 2 thousand Russian soldiers,” Mažonas said.
He added that while the likelihood of hybrid attacks against Lithuania during these exercises is “minimal,” isolated provocations cannot be ruled out.
“Currently, the probability of hybrid attacks is very low. Due to provocations, incidents are possible in every training. Such incidents as, for example, airspace violations are possible, and perhaps there is also a small probability of cyber incidents,” Mažonas noted.
According to him, the chance that Russia might use the Zapad drills as cover for actions against another country in the region, or attempt to draw Belarus into a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, is “really very small.”
As Ukrinform previously reported, the Zapad-2025 exercises will take place in Belarus from September 12 to 16. Authorities stated they will test the ability of Belarus and Russia to ensure security and repel possible aggression, as well as rehearse “planning for the use of nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik scenario.” The exact number of troops participating has not yet been officially announced.
Photo: Defense Intelligence of Ukraine
Source: Lithuanian intel: 30,000 troops to take part in Russia-Belarus Zapad-2025 drills
