No major concentration of Russian forces in Belarus yet for Zapad-2025 drills, SBGS reports

This was reported by Spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service Andrii Demchenko during a briefing with Ukrinform.

“I want to reassure the public that currently, there are no changes directly along the border. We still do not observe any formation on Belarusian territory that would pose a threat to our country or be located near our border, nor any large grouping being assembled from various units. This applies to both Belarusian army units and Russian army units,” Demchenko said.

At the same time, he noted that the exercises, which will take place in Belarus and partially in Russia, still increase risks and threats for Ukraine.

“As of now, we do not see that Russia has transferred a substantial number of forces or equipment to Belarus. Of course, some are already present, but these are mainly transport vehicles, a small amount of armored equipment, mostly wheeled vehicles. As for personnel, the number is also insignificant,” the spokesperson explained.

He reminded that the active phase of the exercises will occur from September 12 to 16, when Russian units are expected to increase their numbers and deploy tanks and armored vehicles.

Demchenko added that the number of Russian troops this year is expected to be smaller than in previous exercises.

“Our forecast is that Russia will not be able to bring a very large contingent. To recall, in 2022–2023, Russia deployed around 10–12 thousand personnel in Belarus. During these exercises, the number of Russian troops in Belarus will be significantly lower,” he said.

However, he emphasized that vigilance must be maintained, as the enemy could carry out provocations or information pressure to lure Ukraine into deploying additional forces to the area.

The spokesperson noted that along the entire Belarusian border, from Volyn to Chernihiv, all necessary measures are being taken to counter any potential threats.

He also mentioned that the exercises will include components of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). “As far as we know, some parts of these exercises are already underway. Our task is, once again, to monitor the situation on Belarusian territory,” he concluded.

Earlier, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said that the main maneuvers of Zapad-2025 would be scaled down and moved deeper into the country, away from the western borders.

At the same time, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi noted that before the 2022 invasion, Russia deployed its forces in Belarus, so the planned autumn Russian-Belarusian exercises could serve as cover for creating a new strike group.