The Kremlin appears to be making significant efforts to influence Western discussions on allowing Ukraine to use long-range strikes on military targets inside Russia, indicating deep Russian concern about the consequences such strikes would have on offensive operations in Ukraine.
That’s according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, reports Ukrinform.
Even a small number of successful long-range Ukrainian strikes could have an asymmetric impact and prompt Russian forces to move their ammunition depots beyond the range of Western-provided weapons, analysts say. This will complicate Russian logistics in the immediate vicinity of Ukraine.
As an example, the report recalls that in the summer of 2022, Ukrainian forces launched HIMARS strikes on targets in the occupied part of Ukraine, which forced the Russians to disperse ammunition depots and undermined Russian logistics.
“Russian authorities are likely concerned about how moving ammunition depots and other critical storage facilities further away from the frontline and outside the range of Western-provided systems will impact Russian offensive capabilities in Ukraine and appear to be engaged in a significant rhetorical effort to prevent the West from allowing Ukraine to conduct another similarly significant strike campaign,” analysts believe.
However, the benefits of allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons may outweigh the risk of Russian retaliation more than Western politicians currently believe, ISW believes.
“The Kremlin has been conducting covert operations against Western powers since long before the ongoing debate about Ukraine’s use of Western-provided weapons to strike Russia and the Kremlin may intend to intensify these operations regardless of the West’s decision as these operations support other Kremlin objectives to destabilize European countries and undermine NATO’s military readiness,” the report says.
As Ukrinform reported earlier, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine needs permission to use long-range weapons to hit military targets inside Russia from four partners: the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany.
In turn, the UK’s top diplomat David Lammy said he expects that a decision on lifting such restrictions would be made before winter starts.
Source: Kremlin fears Ukraine could be allowed to use Western-provided long-range arms - ISW
