Russia exploiting energy crisis in Moldova to justify future aggression – ISW

That is according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as cited by Ukrinform.

The analysts note that both Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities are working to address Moldova’s gas crisis. However, the pro-Russian self-proclaimed Transnistrian authorities have consistently rejected assistance from either Ukraine or Moldova. For instance, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on January 12 that Ukraine was ready to supply coal to Transnistria, but the offer went unanswered. Similarly, Transnistria recently declined Moldova’s proposal to receive gas via European platforms.

“Kremlin officials are attempting to exploit the energy crisis in Moldova to set conditions to justify future Russian aggression against Moldova,” the ISW analysts believe.

They also noted that Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihail Popșoi stated that Russia is using its artificially created energy crisis to try to destabilize the Moldovan economy in order to influence the upcoming elections.

The analysts also refer to the comments by Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev on January 14. He claimed that that Moldovan authorities are to blame for the current energy crisis even though the crisis began on January 1 when Gazprom cut gas supplies to Transnistria while making false allegations about Moldova’s debt to Gazprom. Patrushev emphasized that Russia’s priority in Moldova is to “protect Russia’s compatriots” from “discrimination.” He drew a parallel between Moldova and Ukraine, suggesting that Moldova’s “anti-Russian policy” might “lead to Moldova either becoming part of another state [likely in reference to Romania] or ceasing to exist altogether.”

“Russia has long claimed its need to protect its “compatriots abroad” in Ukraine as a justification for its aggression against Ukraine, and Patrushev’s statements suggest that the Kremlin is setting conditions to exploit the artificially created gas crisis in Moldova to justify potential future Russian aggression against Moldova as a necessary response to Moldova’s policies that threaten Russian “compatriots” in Moldova,” the reports says.

As reported by Ukrinform, on December 28, Gazprom announced it would halt gas supplies to Moldova, citing alleged debts by Moldovagaz. In response, Transnistrian authorities declared a state of emergency. After the gas supply was cut on January 1, central heating was shut off in Transnistrian cities, with gas only available for cooking. The region’s reserves are projected to last 20 days. To cope, Moldova’s Power Plant (Moldavskaya GRES) has switched to coal-based electricity generation.