Businesses keep their performance expectations at last year’s level – NBU

This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) calculates on a monthly basis, Ukrinform reports.

“The business activity expectations index (BAEI) was 41.0 in January 2025, unchanged on January 2024. In January, businesses usually weaken their expectations of their current economic performance compared to other months, due to seasonal factors,” the report says.

It is noted that the BAEI dynamics was restrained by the difficult security situation, a lack of investment in production capital, energy and labor needs, rising production costs, inflation and depreciation. At the same time, sustained consumer demand and substantial international financial aid were positive factors.

Industrial companies reported more guarded performance expectations amid the destruction of production facilities, a lack of investment in production capital, a shortage of labor, and higher production costs, the sector’s index being 42.0 in January, compared to 43.7 in January 2024. Trading companies raised their estimates to 40.0 (38.9 in January 2024). Services companies also increased their estimates to 41.1 (40.4 in January 2024). For three months in a row, construction companies provided the most restrained estimates due to the seasonal nature of construction work and shortages of qualified staff – the sectoral index in January stood at only 37.2, although this is better than last year’s 31.9.

The survey was conducted from 6 January to 23 January 2025. A total of 519 companies were polled. Of these, 43.7% are industrial companies, 26.6% are services companies, 24.5% are trading companies, and 5.2% are construction companies. Among the respondents, 29.7% are large companies, 28.3% are medium-sized companies, and 42.0% are small-sized companies.