Sensation: Ukraine’s indigenous missile can reach long-range targets inside Russia free from partner countries’ restrictions. Named the Long Neptune, Ukraine’s new indigenous missile can hit targets as far as 1,000 km (621 miles) away. How can this change the trajectory of war with Russia?
Ukraine has tested and operationally deployed an upgraded version of its Neptune cruise missile, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced during a broadcast televised on Saturday.
“There were also reports today on our missile program. We have significant results. ‘Long Neptune’ has been tested and successfully used in combat,” Zelensky said.
“A new Ukrainian missile, precise strike. Range – a thousand kilometers. Thank you, our Ukrainian developers, manufacturers and military personnel.”
First successful operational deployment
Defense analysts suggest that the Long Neptune’s successful use in combat is possibly with reference to the March 14 strike on a Russian oil refinery 300 miles (483 kilometers) away from the frontline in Tuapse, the Krasnodar Krai region.
“Judging from the video, I can say that this clearly does not look like a drone strike. First of all, a drone strike does not produce such a strong primary sound wave, and its power is clearly much higher than that produced by a 40–70 kg warhead. Secondly, full detonation of everything occurred just immediately and simultaneously, both of the weapon’s explosive component and the content of the fuel tank target. During a strike of a smaller warhead the reverse process occurs – a light detonation, then detonation of the tank’s contents, followed by subsequent burnout of fuel content,” comments Oleksandr Kovalenko, defense analyst at the Information Resistance group.
The new Neptune seems to have scared the Russians quite a bit. As the spokesman for the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Third Rank Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk said, there have been no Russian ships seen deployed in the Black Sea for several days. “The Russian fleet’s cowardice can be explained by one thing – the “impact” of the Ukrainian cruise missile Neptune, the new version of which can hit targets at a distance of 1,000 kilometers,” the Navy officer comments.
Despite the fact that specifics about the Long Neptune are not disclosed officially, this missile is truly unique. Firstly, Europe does not have its own produced weapon of a similar class. Secondly, Neptune, unlike the American Tomahawk, with which it is already being compared, can be launched not only from sea and air platforms, but also from a land platform. Thirdly, Neptune is capable of performing the roles for which ATACMS or Storm Shadow were considered, but it does not require permission from partners to be used. Furthermore, it is capable of extended ranges.
Long Neptune: essential information you should know
News that Kyiv-based Design Bureau Luch kicked off the development of Long Neptune missile emerged in late 2023. At that time, the Deputy Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk reported that work was underway on a new modification of Neptune missile, but declined to provide details.
More than a year has passed, and now the President of Ukraine has announced the successful use of Long Neptune in combat.
Reserve Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan explains that it is technically possible for Neptune to exceed 1,000 kilometer range: “In the baseline configuration, the engine has no problems working during an hour, allowing the missile to travel at 850 km/h (528 m/h). If you add more fuel… In addition, the missile is equipped with an inertial guidance system and a radar homing guidance head that can see targets at a distance of about 20 kilometers (12.5 miles), which makes it truly unique. If they are produced in large quantities, this will be a real breakthrough.”
Ivan Kyrychevsky, an analyst with Defense Express, argues that, due to a lack of information on Long Neptune specifications and performances, one can only assume that it can reach targets at ranges up to 1,000 kilometers. “The word ‘long’ in the name may indicate that this modification has a significantly longer fuselage compared to baseline R-360 anti-ship missile from which it was spinned off,” he adds.
Oleksii Hetman, Russo-Ukrainian war veteran and the Armed Forces of Ukraine Reserve Mayor agrees that the Neptune missile has become larger in size: “The size has increased due to the addition of more fuel tanks to allow for longer flying distances. I am sure that the new Neptune has retained the homing guidance head and all the electronic components employed in original Neptune configuration, excepting the component responsible for flight performance.”
The expert suggested that the new Neptune can assumingly carry from 100 to 300 kilograms of explosives, suggesting Ukraine can no longer confine itself to targeting oil refineries or ammunition depots.
“A drone can carry from 10 to 50 kilograms, meaning it is impossible to penetrate a more or less hardened target with a drone. Even if several of them fly in, it is like shooting at an armored vehicle with a handgun. Even if you shoot 10 times, you won’t break through. But something more powerful will break through,” Hetman says.
Neptune anti-ship cruise missile
Here is a comment from Kostyantyn Mashovets, Information Resistance group coordinator: “If the predicted performance characteristics of Long Neptune are true, then “this can have a significant impact on the balance and alignment of forces in this war.”
“And even more so if, as some experts estimate, Ukraine will have the opportunity to produce from 30 to 60 these missiles per month as soon as this year,” he says.
As for the price, the estimates are approximate.
“The Neptune is often compared to the Tomahawk or Storm Shadow missiles, which are priced at about $4.5 million per unit. The Ukrainian missile, according to my calculations, is much cheaper at around $1.5 million,” says Anatolii Khrapchynsky, manufacturer of electronic warfare equipment and former Air Force officer.
Thirty to sixty missiles per month – is this a lot or a little, and is it realistic?
President Zelensky announced last year that that Ukraine will be able to produce up to 3,000 cruise missiles in 2025. While it is yet unknown whether this includes Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles, but this high production rate cannot but impress. A simple calculation gives the approximate number of eight missiles (!) produced every day.
“If Ukraine really achieves that high production rate, this will become a serious factor in deterring Russian aggression. By way of comparison, Russia has the capacity to produce approximately one or two Kalibr cruise missiles per day, that is, 30-60 missiles per month and approximately 365-700 per year. The situation is similar with the production of Kh-101 missiles, which are produced in numbers not exceeding two missiles per day. That’s to say, even putting together Kalibrs and Kh-101s, the combined production rate does not exceed about 1,400 missiles per year, which is less than half the yearly production rate of 3,000 Ukrainian missiles, says Oleksandr Kovalenko.
This large-scale production can significantly change the balance of power
“Not only will we achieve parity in the number of missile strikes, but will also be able to create a serious threat for Russia’s war infrastructure. This will change dramatically the Kremlin’s calculations regarding the continuation of war,” Mr Kovalenko argues.
Anatoly Khrapchynsky, asked if Ukraine has enough capacity to produce 30-40 Neptune missiles per month, said, “Achieving this production rate is pretty realistic, given the capacities and capabilities currently held by Ukrainian defense industries.”
That said, however, he continues to note, the supply of components – in particular, engines, navigation systems and other critically important components – remains a key concern.
“Theoretically, more missiles are possible to produce, but ensuring timely deliveries of all the requisite components remains a limiting factor. There is another aspect – the number of launchers. That is why the issue of international cooperation is critically important. In Europe, Neptune is actually the only one surface-to-surface missile capable of ranges of up to 1,000 kilometers, which is already in existence and can be launched from land, sea and air platforms. European countries such as Germany, Poland and France are just weighing the possibility of creating similar systems, and this is still only at the level of discussions without clearly defined deadlines.”
Europe could play a key role in scaling up the production of Long Neptune missiles by providing critical components and engaging its own production capacities.
“Open cooperation in the field of defense technologies would allow both Ukraine and European partners to fully provide each other’s strategic needs – from drones to high-precision missile weapons,” Khrapchynsky went on to note.
Neptune’s technological advantages: better than the Russian Onyx and more promising than the American Tomahawk
Olexander Kovalenko: “The R-360 missile from the Neptune ASCM system is a modern multifunctional design that is fundamentally different from the American Tomahawk.
It was created with a view to be capable of being launched from various platforms: land, sea and air. The Tomahawk, by contrast, is mainly used in the version for sea launches, as well as (in some modifications) from air platforms.
“Back in 2014, after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, it became obvious that Ukraine, as a maritime country, critically needed its indigenous anti-ship missile system. At that time, we only had outdated Soviet-era Rubizh missiles, which were mainly deployed in Crimea and ended up in Russia’s hands after the peninsula’s occupation,” he reminds.
That said, Neptune has come as a response to this challenge. However, even before completion of the Neptune trial program, it encountered a wave of criticism from individual “experts” who insisted Ukraine should focus on purchasing foreign-made equivalents, and this held back completion of the Neptune program. It wasn’t until 2022 that the Neptune system revealed its enormous potential.
The R-360 missile has always caused concern in Russia due to its high performances. It significantly exceeds in effectiveness most of Russia’s subsonic cruise missiles and is impervious to interception by Russian air defenses.
“This was confirmed back in 2023 at Cape Tarkhankut, and earlier still when the missile sank the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva in April 2022 and was later deployed to strike Russian land targets such as the S-400 air defense system,” Kovalenko goes on to comment.
The cruiser Moskva had long been considered to be the main mobile air defense capability in the Black Sea, equipped with the S-300F Fort system, which was supposed to provide echeloned defense. However, it was unable to intercept even the R-360 missile in its baseline configuration, which is capable of flying at extremely low altitude of three to ten meters in the terminal approach to the target. None of Russia’s air defense systems, including the latest designs, is capable of effectively intercepting such threats.
The attack on Tarkhankut in 2023 once again confirmed this fact. The S-400 system, which, according to specifications, is supposed to be able to intercept threats flying as low as five meters over the water, could not do this and was destroyed by the Neptune. This proved that the missile can hit not only ships sailing in the open sea, but also ground targets. The capability to follow the curvature of the terrain while flying at extremely low altitudes was laid down at the design and development stage.
Long Neptune reportedly hit a Russian oil refinery 300 miles away from the frontline in Tuapse, the Krasnodar Krai region, in an overnight attack on March 14
Anatolii Khrapchynsky shares the view that the upgraded Neptune cruise missile with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers opens up new opportunities for the Armed Forces of Ukraine: “This is a powerful missile capable of hitting complex targets such as airfields with infrastructure, and defense industrial facilities.”
Neptune essentially performs the roles assigned to ATACMS or Storm Shadow missiles, but it is free from restrictions on its use imposed by Ukraine’s partner countries.
“Furthermore to this, where launches are carried out from a safe zone within Ukraine, the depth of the attack can reach 700 kilometers, meaning that not just military facilities located near the border areas are potentially under attack, but also production centers, such as rocket manufacturing enterprises in the Moscow region, in particular in Korolev. Russia has already realized this threat, which is why it more increasingly has to take off its long-range A-50 Airborne Warning and Control aircraft (A-50) to ensure more effective monitoring of its airspace for any suspicious activity from foreign aircraft and drones,” the expert says.
This will significantly limit the enemy’s ability to use its KAB precision glide bombs, which is our true “trump card”.
Is Neptune capable of becoming a game changer in this war? The answer is yes, but there are important nuances.
“In actual fact, Ukraine has already created a wide range of weapons that significantly affect the course of war. A wide diversity of different unmanned systems — ground, air, surface and underwater — are intensively used on the battlefield. We have effective means of reconnaissance, mine laying and removal, in addition to precision attack systems. That being said, a change in approaches to waging combat operations is already taking place, and Neptune has a crucial role to play in this process,” Anatolii Khrapchynsky continues to note.
Neptune has a key advantage in that it can be launched from a ground platform without the need for support from strategic aviation, which Ukraine currently lacks.
Neptune is not a Game Changer, but a key component to changing the rules of combat operations, which Ukraine is already implementing. This is part of a new generation of Ukrainian weapons, which is demonstrating its effectiveness,” the expert argues.
At the same time, the expert reminds that no missile in the world is completely impervious to interception by air defense systems: “Therefore, any combat mission assigned to the Neptune is carried out in concert with other means that help either to mislead the enemy’s air defenses or significantly weaken it before the strike is delivered.”
Ukraine has a wide range of unmanned aerial systems in its arsenal – using both jet and internal combustion engines. This makes it possible to effectively use the tactics of massive attacks, combining drones and cruise missiles to break through enemy air defenses.
Another aspect of importance is the potential impact Neptune can have on Russia’s use of KAB bombs.
If we talk about precision guided aerial bombs, the operational range of the enemy’s tactical aviation that drops them is approximately 500 kilometers. But in truth this distance does not exceed 300 km. Heavy aerial bombs add extra load to the carrier airplane, forcing the enemy to reduce the flight range.
“Given that the upgraded Neptune is capable of hitting targets at a depth of up to 1,000 kilometers, this allows Ukraine to create a kind of “gray zone” within a radius of about 300 km on the territory of the Russian Federation. In this zone, no airfield will be able to safely deploy either tactical or strategic aircraft, which will significantly limit the Russian army’s ability to use KAB bombs,” the military expert comments.
In actual fact, this means that the Russian Federation will lose the ability to use heavy aerial bombs, in particular the FAB-500 and heavier models, to the current extent.
Myroslav Liskovych. Kyiv
Source: Ukraine has upgraded its Neptune cruise missile to reach targets 621 miles away
