Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may spontaneously decide to attack one of the Baltic states if he believes that the time has come to test the EU and NATO.
This opinion was expressed in an interview with Ukrinform by Jana Puglierin, a well-known security expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Germany.
“And I would not rule out that in the future there will be a constellation of stars that will look attractive for, for example, attacking a Baltic country, putting it to the test,” the expert suggested.
She noted that for Putin, the goal is actually to reorganize the European security order in accordance with his demands, which were presented to NATO and the United States in December 2021. These demands included, in particular, the ousting of the Americans from Europe and the actual division of Europe into different security and influence zones.
So, if Russia decides to launch a “test attack,” for example, in the Baltic region, but the EU and Western allies are not able to respond properly, “then the EU will be dead and NATO will be dead.” And this is what Putin wants.
Puglierin reminded that Russia had launched a hybrid war against Europe even before its full-scale war against Ukraine, which, in her opinion, will continue. The expert believes that such a hybrid war can be no less destructive on many levels than a conventional war.
According to Puglierin, a full-scale attack on Ukraine in 2022 was not planned for a very long time, the decision was made when Putin decided that, by a coincidence of circumstances, the time was right.
“Suddenly, an opportunity arose, and Putin’s analysis of possible losses, benefits, and risks was such that they said, ‘Okay, we’ll do it now,’” the expert said.
Among the possible factors, she mentioned, in particular, the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, the perception of Joe Biden as a weak US president, a completely erroneous interpretation of the events in Ukraine, etc.
Puglierin is convinced that Putin is primarily counting on controlling Ukraine. He tried for a long time to achieve this through the Minsk process, but later realized that it was not working and resorted to open aggression.
European security experts, including German intelligence, believe that Moscow may be able to attack NATO by the end of this decade.
Source: German expert: Putin may impulsively decide on "test attack" against NATO country
