Vladimir Putin will not agree to peace with Ukraine, not even a hypothetical “Minsk-3” agreement, but he can be forced to agree to at least a ceasefire.
Kurt Volker, former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations (2017–2019), said this in an interview with Ukrinform.
“I don’t believe there’s any real peace with Putin. Ever. […] So no, I don’t believe in peace—not with that mentality. He means war. […] I say this with high confidence: Putin will never agree to a deal,” Volker said.
He explained this by pointing to Putin’s absolutist mindset, his distorted historical and political narratives, and his desire to eliminate Ukraine – its national identity – and pretend that “it’s always been just Russia.” As a result, Putin will not agree to any settlement but will instead continue to push and escalate his demands.
However, Volker believes that a ceasefire could still be achieved before the end of the year. The condition for this would be financial pressure on Russia, as there is currently no real military threat to overthrow the regime and no signs of a “color revolution” inside the country.
“He [Putin] needs to run out of money. […] If his foreign exchange reserves fall to around $10 billion and keep dropping, he won’t want to threaten the Russian state’s solvency. It’s just that he won’t be able to run the country without money,” Volker said.
If Russia finds itself in a truly dire economic situation, Putin might make a “goodwill gesture” and agree to a 30-day ceasefire – though he will likely still try to issue ultimatums. Volker said he was not concerned about a possible “Minsk-3” scenario because, in his view, there will be no real agreement anyway.
Once the shooting stops, Volker said, the West must implement measures that will deter any future attacks.
“That’s what we’ll need: political, economic, military [strength],” he said, adding that such deterrence could be achieved through U.S. weapons, Ukrainian troops, European security guarantees, and more. He did not rule out the deployment of a European contingent to Ukraine for training, technical support, and air defense purposes.
Volker also stated that U.S. President Donald Trump would not meet with Vladimir Putin unless there is a ceasefire in place.
Russia has repeatedly rejected proposals for a 30-day ceasefire, offering instead its own three-day ceasefires during holidays.
Source: Peace with Putin impossible, but he can be forced into ceasefire – Volker
