Expert warns of risk of Russia using chemical weapons near NATO borders

This warning was shared with Ukrinform’s correspondent in The Hague by Patrick Bolder, a strategic analyst and defense expert at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) and retired lieutenant colonel of the Royal Netherlands Air Force.

“Now, that the use of chemical weapons seems to be more and more normalized by Russian troops and being part of their military doctrine, that means that it’s part of their modus operandi,” Bolder said.

The expert described a potential scenario in which a chemical plume crosses an international boundary:

“Russian troops on the border with, for example, Estonia, are having an exercise with their chemical weapons and suddenly something goes wrong, either on purpose or really by accident. And a wave of chemical gases crosses the border due to the favorable meteorological conditions. It hits NATO soldiers. It hits also civilians in a nearby village. How do we react on that? Is that an act of war? Can we prove it’s on purpose? Or if Russia says, oops, we’re sorry. Do we believe that? How will we react: in a diplomatic way? In a military way? How?” Bolder posed.

According to him, the recent report by the Netherlands’ military intelligence emphasizes that such scenarios are realistic and must be taken seriously.

“And actually, this report by the military intelligence services of the Netherlands must trigger the thinking about these kinds of occurrences. Well, this is a plausible scenario, and we have to prepare ourselves for it, and I hope that’s the fact. This report shows that it’s at least possible. It’s not unthinkable anymore,” he added.

As reported by Ukrinform, the Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD), the Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD), and Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) have all warned that Russia is expanding its use of chemical weapons against Ukraine.