During his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Alaska, Putin will try to appease the American leader and “win his favor” by making certain proposals that are beneficial to Russia.
Russia will play for time on the ceasefire and try to avoid new sanctions. This was stated in a comment to Ukrinform by Daniel Szeligowski, the Head of the Eastern Europe Program and Chief Analyst on Ukraine at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM).
The expert noted that even if Trump reaches some kind of agreement with Putin in Alaska, this does not mean that Ukraine “will automatically agree to it or can be forced to do so.”
Szeligowski expects that this will most likely be a general discussion on the framework for a political settlement. He did not rule out that Trump might be able to make some progress on the issue of a ceasefire.
“I believe there is a chance of achieving a partial ceasefire, although this does not mean that it will be implemented. It seems to me that this is what both Ukraine and Europe want. Putin will also have to offer Trump something during the meeting so that the U.S. President leaves with something to show for it,” Szeligowski stressed.
According to the expert, Putin could offer Trump a partial ceasefire, for example, in the air, and in return, the U.S. leader would have to promise him, for example, that he would convince Ukraine to accept the so-called Russian memorandum from Istanbul as the basis for Russian-Ukrainian peace talks.
The PISM expert emphasized that Putin wants to achieve several goals at the meeting with Trump. According to him, first, Russia is playing for time to avoid additional sanctions while maintaining the initiative on the frontlines.
“That is why Russia is not really interested in a ceasefire… However, it is more important for the Russians to win Trump’s favor, so they need to offer him something. The question is, what could Russia offer him? One possibility is the cessation of air strikes, since Ukrainian shelling is most detrimental to Russia,” Szeligowski emphasized.
He further elaborated that Ukraine, in turn, is interested in a comprehensive cessation of hostilities and is not particularly interested in a ceasefire solely in the airspace, where Kyiv has gained notable victories.
The Polish expert noted that since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will not be present during the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska and there will be no “additional filters” such as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, American diplomats, or European leaders who are well aware of Russia’s intentions, Putin will have the opportunity to manipulate Trump.
“That is why this summit is being held, to manipulate Trump without these filters,” Szeligowski noted.
At the same time, the expert stressed that Putin does not bear significant political risks from this meeting.
“Putin is going there to appease Trump. Probably, from the Russian point of view, the discussion about sanctions against Russia has gone too far. Therefore, Putin needs to demonstrate flexibility. The political benefits of this visit are insignificant for him,” the expert stressed. He added that this meeting also allows the Russians to reject the argument about Putin’s isolation.
Szeligowski noted that it is difficult to predict the outcome of this meeting in Alaska. He does not rule out that, based on its results, Trump may come up with a proposal for Ukraine to cease fire, based on the Russian Federation’s arguments and threatening that if Kyiv does not accept these proposals, the conditions may be even worse in a month.
“But we also cannot rule out that Putin will anger Trump,” the expert said, pointing to the wide range of possible reactions from the U.S. President to this meeting.
According to Ukrinform, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a meeting on August 15 at the Elmendorf-Richardson Joint Base in Anchorage, Alaska.
The initiative to hold a meeting between the U.S. and Russian Presidents during the meeting of Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow came from the Russian side.
Rallies are planned in downtown Anchorage on the eve and the day of the Trump-Putin summit.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance will participate in a virtual meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and leaders of several European countries on August 13.
Photo: screenshot
